arXiv:2510.17414cs.LG2025-10

用注意力增强的扩散模型,精准预测电池寿命并给出可信误差范围。

Conditional Diffusion Modeling with Attention for Probabilistic Battery Capacity Prediction under Real-World Condition

  • 用相关性与XGBoost筛选关键特征,结合扩散模型生成时间序列。
  • 相对误差仅0.94%,95%置信区间宽度3.74%,精度与不确定性均优。
  • 适合电池健康管理、新能源车续航预测等场景,可靠性高。

锂离子电池容量及其不确定性准确预测对可靠电池管理至关重要,但受老化过程随机性影响仍具挑战。本文提出条件扩散U-Net带注意力机制(CDUA),融合特征工程与深度学习解决该问题。首先从真实车辆运行数据中提取电池容量,利用皮尔逊相关系数和XGBoost算法筛选关键特征。随后训练CDUA模型,其包含两个组件:(1) 带自注意力的上下文U-Net,用于捕捉复杂时序依赖;(2) 噪声预测网络,学习估计添加噪声,实现从噪声观测中重建精确容量值。在真实车辆数据上的实验表明,所提方法相对平均绝对误差为0.94%,相对均方根误差为1.14%,95%置信区间相对宽度仅为3.74%。结果验证了CDUA在容量估计精度与不确定性量化方面的优越性。对比实验进一步证明其鲁棒性及优于主流方法的性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of lithium-ion battery capacity and its associated uncertainty is essential for reliable battery management but remains challenging due to the stochastic nature of aging. This paper presents a new method, termed the Conditional Diffusion U-Net with Attention (CDUA), which integrates feature engineering and deep learning to address this challenge. The proposed approach employs a diffusion-based generative model for time-series forecasting and incorporates attention mechanisms to enhance predictive performance. Battery capacity is first derived from real-world vehicle operation data. The most relevant features are then identified using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the XGBoost algorithm. These features are used to train the CDUA model, which comprises two components: (1) a contextual U-Net with self-attention to capture complex temporal dependencies, and (2) a noise predictor network that learns to estimate the added noise, enabling the reconstruction of accurate capacity values from noisy observations. Experimental validation on the real-world vehicle data demonstrates that the proposed CDUA model achieves a relative mean absolute error of 0.94% and a relative root mean square error of 1.14%, with a narrow 95% confidence interval of 3.74% in relative width. These results confirm that CDUA provides both accurate capacity estimation and reliable uncertainty quantification. Comparative experiments further verify its robustness and superior performance over existing mainstream approaches.

电池预测扩散模型不确定性量化

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