arXiv:2510.17532cs.CLcs.LG2025-10被引 1

让大模型学会像医生一样逐步推理,提升癌症生存预测的准确性和可解释性。

OncoReason: Structuring Clinical Reasoning in LLMs for Robust and Interpretable Survival Prediction

  • 用多任务学习让大模型同时做生存判断、时间预测和生成解释性理由。
  • 使用思维链提示使模型F1提升6.0%,平均绝对误差降低12%。
  • 通过强化学习对齐专家推理路径,实现最先进可解释性,适合临床决策支持场景。

预测癌症治疗结果需要兼具高精度与可解释性的模型,尤其在面对异质性临床数据时。尽管大语言模型在生物医学NLP中表现优异,但缺乏结构化推理能力,难以支撑高风险决策。本文提出统一的多任务学习框架,将自回归大模型与临床推理对齐,用于MSK-CHORD数据集上的生存预测。模型联合训练二分类生存判断、连续生存时间回归及自然语言理由生成。评估三种对齐策略:(1) 标准监督微调(SFT),(2) 带思维链(CoT)提示的SFT以激发逐步推理,(3) 组相对策略优化(GRPO),一种基于强化学习的方法,使模型输出与专家推理轨迹对齐。实验使用LLaMa3-8B和Med42-8B骨干网络,结果显示CoT提示使F1提升+6.0%,MAE降低12%;GRPO在BLEU、ROUGE和BERTScore上均达最优,显著提升可解释性与预测性能。进一步发现,现有生物医学大模型因架构限制常无法生成有效推理链条。研究强调推理感知对齐在多任务临床建模中的关键作用,并为精准肿瘤学中可信的大模型设定新基准。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting cancer treatment outcomes requires models that are both accurate and interpretable, particularly in the presence of heterogeneous clinical data. While large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in biomedical NLP, they often lack structured reasoning capabilities critical for high-stakes decision support. We present a unified, multi-task learning framework that aligns autoregressive LLMs with clinical reasoning for outcome prediction on the MSK-CHORD dataset. Our models are trained to jointly perform binary survival classification, continuous survival time regression, and natural language rationale generation. We evaluate three alignment strategies: (1) standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT), (2) SFT with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting to elicit step-by-step reasoning, and (3) Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a reinforcement learning method that aligns model outputs to expert-derived reasoning trajectories. Experiments with LLaMa3-8B and Med42-8B backbones demonstrate that CoT prompting improves F1 by +6.0 and reduces MAE by 12%, while GRPO achieves state-of-the-art interpretability and predictive performance across BLEU, ROUGE, and BERTScore. We further show that existing biomedical LLMs often fail to produce valid reasoning traces due to architectural constraints. Our findings underscore the importance of reasoning-aware alignment in multi-task clinical modeling and set a new benchmark for interpretable, trustworthy LLMs in precision oncology.

生存预测临床推理可解释性大模型

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