提出更灵活的不确定性估计方法,提升模型在复杂场景下的可靠性。
Uncertainty Estimation by Flexible Evidential Deep Learning
- 用广义狄利克雷分布替代传统分布,增强不确定性建模能力
- 在多种场景下实现领先水平的不确定性量化性能
- 适合高风险应用中需要可靠置信度的场景
不确定性量化(UQ)对机器学习在高风险场景中的部署至关重要,过高的置信度可能导致严重后果。有效的UQ方法需兼顾计算效率与跨场景泛化能力。证据深度学习(EDL)通过预测类别概率的狄利克雷分布实现高效建模,但其对狄利克雷分布的强假设限制了鲁棒性,尤其在复杂或未知情形下表现不佳。为此,我们提出灵活证据深度学习($/mathcal{F}$-EDL),通过预测一个广义狄利克雷分布来扩展EDL,该分布是狄利克雷分布的推广,能更灵活地表达不确定性。该方法显著提升了复杂场景下的不确定性泛化能力和可靠性。我们从理论上证明了$/mathcal{F}$-EDL的优势,并在经典、长尾及含噪分布内等多类评估设置中实证验证了其在不确定性量化方面的先进性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency with the ability to generalize across diverse scenarios. Evidential deep learning (EDL) achieves efficiency by modeling uncertainty through the prediction of a Dirichlet distribution over class probabilities. However, the restrictive assumption of Dirichlet-distributed class probabilities limits EDL's robustness, particularly in complex or unforeseen situations. To address this, we propose \textit{flexible evidential deep learning} ($\mathcal{F}$-EDL), which extends EDL by predicting a flexible Dirichlet distribution -- a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution -- over class probabilities. This approach provides a more expressive and adaptive representation of uncertainty, significantly enhancing UQ generalization and reliability under challenging scenarios. We theoretically establish several advantages of $\mathcal{F}$-EDL and empirically demonstrate its state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse evaluation settings, including classical, long-tailed, and noisy in-distribution scenarios.
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