为医疗预警系统设计了兼顾精度与人力限制的新型评估方法

The ROC curve is widely used to assess binary classifiers. Yet for some applications, such as alert systems for monitoring hospitalized patients, conventional ROC analysis cannot meet two key deployment needs: enforcing a constraint on precision to avoid false alarm fatigue and imposing an upper bound on the number of predicted positives to represent the capacity of hospital staff. The usual area under the curve metric also does not reflect asymmetric costs for false positives and false negatives. In this paper we address all three of these issues. First, we show how the subset of classifiers that meet precision and capacity constraints occupy a feasible region in ROC space. We establish the polygon-shaped geometry of this region. We then define the partial area of lesser classifiers, a performance metric that is monotonic with cost and only accounts for the feasible region. Averaging this area over a desired distribution for cost parameters results in the partial volume over the ROC surface, or partial VOROS. In experiments predicting mortality risk from vital sign history on several datasets, we show this cost-aware metric can outperform alternatives at ranking classifiers for in-hospital alerts.