用大模型动态选检,让诊断更准更快更省
Timely Clinical Diagnosis through Active Test Selection
- 结合贝叶斯实验设计与大模型,按需推荐最有效的检查
- 在真实数据集上提升诊断准确率,减少无效检测
- 适合临床医生参与决策,支持资源紧张环境
机器学习辅助诊断常依赖静态、完整数据集,难以反映临床实际中逐次、资源敏感的推理过程。诊断在高压或资源有限环境下仍易出错,亟需能支持及时、低成本决策的框架。本文提出ACTMED(基于模型实验设计的自适应临床检验选择),将贝叶斯实验设计(BED)与大语言模型(LLM)结合,模拟真实诊疗流程:每一步选择能最大降低诊断不确定性的检验。LLM作为灵活模拟器,生成合理患者状态分布,支撑信念更新,无需特定任务的结构化训练数据。临床医生全程可介入,审查建议、解读中间结果并运用专业判断。在真实数据集上的评估表明,ACTMED能优化检验选择,提升诊断准确性、可解释性与资源利用效率。这为构建透明、自适应、符合临床习惯的诊断系统迈出关键一步,且对领域特定数据依赖更低。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED (Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMED on real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.
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