用拓扑方法分析货币共动,发现新聚类模式。
Topology of Currencies: Persistent Homology for FX Co-movements: A Comparative Clustering Study
- 用拓扑数据分析货币汇率共动结构,提取新特征。
- 拓扑特征聚类的Calinski-Harabasz得分显著更高。
- 适合关注金融系统结构性风险的研究者。
本研究探讨拓扑数据分析(TDA)能否在聚类货币行为时提供超越传统统计方法的洞察。聚焦外汇(FX)市场这一常具非线性与高维动态的复杂系统,我们基于13种主要货币对欧元的月度对数收益率,比较了基于TDA特征与经典统计特征的聚类结果。采用k-means和层次聚类算法,并通过轮廓系数(Silhouette score)和Calinski-Harabasz指数评估聚类质量。结果显示,基于TDA特征的聚类生成了更紧凑、分离度更高的簇,尤其在Calinski-Harabasz指数上表现显著优于传统方法。然而,所有方法的轮廓系数均较低,表明外汇时间序列聚类本身具有内在难度。不同聚类结果表明,TDA捕捉到了传统方法可能忽略的货币共动结构模式。研究证实TDA是分析金融时间序列的有力补充工具,尤其适用于需理解结构性共动的风险管理场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study investigates whether Topological Data Analysis (TDA) can provide additional insights beyond traditional statistical methods in clustering currency behaviours. We focus on the foreign exchange (FX) market, which is a complex system often exhibiting non-linear and high-dimensional dynamics that classical techniques may not fully capture. We compare clustering results based on TDA-derived features versus classical statistical features using monthly logarithmic returns of 13 major currency exchange rates (all against the euro). Two widely-used clustering algorithms, \(k\)-means and Hierarchical clustering, are applied on both types of features, and cluster quality is evaluated via the Silhouette score and the Calinski-Harabasz index. Our findings show that TDA-based feature clustering produces more compact and well-separated clusters than clustering on traditional statistical features, particularly achieving substantially higher Calinski-Harabasz scores. However, all clustering approaches yield modest Silhouette scores, underscoring the inherent difficulty of grouping FX time series. The differing cluster compositions under TDA vs. classical features suggest that TDA captures structural patterns in currency co-movements that conventional methods might overlook. These results highlight TDA as a valuable complementary tool for analysing financial time series, with potential applications in risk management where understanding structural co-movements is crucial.
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