arXiv:2510.19611cs.LG2025-10被引 1

用气候数据提前100周预测呼吸道病毒流行,无需实时监测。

A Climate-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting

  • 融合气候与时间序列的混合深度学习框架,捕捉长期依赖关系。
  • 跨34个州测试,对100周后疫情预测准确率优于传统模型。
  • 适合在缺乏实时监测、气候波动大的地区部署预警系统。

精准预测传染病暴发对公共卫生响应和防控至关重要。尽管机器学习方法在时间序列预测中展现出潜力,但其在地方性传染病预测中的应用仍不充分。本文提出ForecastNet-XCL(基于XGBoost+CNN+BiLSTM的集成模型),一种新型深度学习混合框架,仅利用气候与时间数据,即可实现对呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)长达100周的多周前预测,无需实时监测。该框架结合高分辨率特征学习与长程时序依赖建模,并通过气候控制下的滞后关系训练自回归模块,提供概率预测区间以支持决策。在34个美国州的评估中,ForecastNet-XCL在跨州和境内场景下均显著优于统计基线、单一神经网络及传统集成方法,且在长预测周期内保持高精度。使用气候多样性数据集训练进一步提升了模型泛化能力,尤其适用于具有非规律或双年周期的地区。其高效性、性能与不确定性感知设计,使其成为应对气候变化加剧和监测资源有限情况下的可部署预警工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue to enhance outbreak forecasting. Though the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the value of applying ML models to predict epidemic profiles, using ML models to forecast endemic diseases remains underexplored. In this work, we present ForecastNet-XCL (an ensemble model based on XGBoost+CNN+BiLSTM), a deep learning hybrid framework designed to addresses this gap by creating accurate multi-week RSV forecasts up to 100 weeks in advance based on climate and temporal data, without access to real-time surveillance on RSV. The framework combines high-resolution feature learning with long-range temporal dependency capturing mechanisms, bolstered by an autoregressive module trained on climate-controlled lagged relations. Stochastic inference returns probabilistic intervals to inform decision-making. Evaluated across 34 U.S. states, ForecastNet-XCL reliably outperformed statistical baselines, individual neural nets, and conventional ensemble methods in both within- and cross-state scenarios, sustaining accuracy over extended forecast horizons. Training on climatologically diverse datasets enhanced generalization furthermore, particularly in locations having irregular or biennial RSV patterns. ForecastNet-XCL's efficiency, performance, and uncertainty-aware design make it a deployable early-warning tool amid escalating climate pressures and constrained surveillance resources.

疫情预测气候影响深度学习时间序列

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