用Transformer直接预测交通流量分布,速度比传统方法快多个数量级
From Optimization to Prediction: Transformer-Based Path-Flow Estimation to the Traffic Assignment Problem
- 用Transformer模型直接预测路径流量,避免复杂优化计算
- 在多个真实网络上测试,计算速度提升数个数量级
- 能快速适应需求变化,适合交通规划与应急分析
交通分配问题是交通流分析的核心,传统方法基于均衡原理的数学规划求解,但随着起讫点对(OD对)数量增加,计算复杂度呈非线性增长,难以处理大规模网络。本文提出一种基于深度神经网络的新数据驱动方法,利用Transformer架构直接预测均衡路径流量。该模型聚焦路径层面的交通分布,捕捉不同OD对间的复杂关联,相比传统链路级方法提供更细致灵活的分析。在曼哈顿式合成网络、Sioux Falls网络和东马萨诸塞网络上的实验表明,该模型计算速度比传统优化方法快数个数量级,可高效估计多类别网络的路径流量,在降低计算成本的同时提高预测精度,且能灵活适应需求与网络结构变化,支持交通管理中的快速‘如果-那么’分析,助力交通规划与政策制定。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The traffic assignment problem is essential for traffic flow analysis, traditionally solved using mathematical programs under the Equilibrium principle. These methods become computationally prohibitive for large-scale networks due to non-linear growth in complexity with the number of OD pairs. This study introduces a novel data-driven approach using deep neural networks, specifically leveraging the Transformer architecture, to predict equilibrium path flows directly. By focusing on path-level traffic distribution, the proposed model captures intricate correlations between OD pairs, offering a more detailed and flexible analysis compared to traditional link-level approaches. The Transformer-based model drastically reduces computation time, while adapting to changes in demand and network structure without the need for recalculation. Numerical experiments are conducted on the Manhattan-like synthetic network, the Sioux Falls network, and the Eastern-Massachusetts network. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is orders of magnitude faster than conventional optimization. It efficiently estimates path-level traffic flows in multi-class networks, reducing computational costs and improving prediction accuracy by capturing detailed trip and flow information. The model also adapts flexibly to varying demand and network conditions, supporting traffic management and enabling rapid `what-if' analyses for enhanced transportation planning and policy-making.
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