arXiv:2510.20106cs.LG2025-10

用博弈强化学习让因果发现既高效又可靠

Competition is the key: A Game Theoretic Causal Discovery Approach

  • 设计对抗式RL框架,让智能体直接挑战强基线算法
  • 在30节点合成数据上误差率随样本量下降,符合理论预期
  • 兼顾理论保证与实际可扩展性,适合大规模因果推断

因果发现是机器学习中的核心挑战。现有方法存在根本性矛盾:如GES和GraN-DAG等算法虽具优异实证性能但缺乏有限样本保证;而理论上严谨的方法又难以扩展。本文提出一种博弈论强化学习框架,使DDQN智能体直接对抗强基线(GES或GraN-DAG),且始终从对手解出发进行热启动。该设计带来三项可证明保证:所学图结构不会劣于对手,热启动严格加速收敛,且以高概率选出最优候选图。据我们所知,这是首次在因果发现中实现此类有限样本保证。在30节点的合成结构方程模型(SEM)上,观测误差概率随样本量n下降,与理论紧密契合。在真实世界基准(Sachs、Asia、Alarm、Child、Hepar2、Dream、Andes)上,该方法持续优于GES和GraN-DAG,同时保持理论安全性。尤为显著的是,其可扩展至大型图,如Hepar2(70节点)、Dream(100节点)和Andes(220节点)。这些结果确立了一类新型基于强化学习的因果发现算法,兼具可证明一致性、样本效率与实际可扩展性,标志着经验性能与严格有限样本理论融合的关键一步。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal discovery remains a central challenge in machine learning, yet existing methods face a fundamental gap: algorithms like GES and GraN-DAG achieve strong empirical performance but lack finite-sample guarantees, while theoretically principled approaches fail to scale. We close this gap by introducing a game-theoretic reinforcement learning framework for causal discovery, where a DDQN agent directly competes against a strong baseline (GES or GraN-DAG), always warm-starting from the opponent's solution. This design yields three provable guarantees: the learned graph is never worse than the opponent, warm-starting strictly accelerates convergence, and most importantly, with high probability the algorithm selects the true best candidate graph. To the best of our knowledge, our result makes a first-of-its-kind progress in explaining such finite-sample guarantees in causal discovery: on synthetic SEMs (30 nodes), the observed error probability decays with n, tightly matching theory. On real-world benchmarks including Sachs, Asia, Alarm, Child, Hepar2, Dream, and Andes, our method consistently improves upon GES and GraN-DAG while remaining theoretically safe. Remarkably, it scales to large graphs such as Hepar2 (70 nodes), Dream (100 nodes), and Andes (220 nodes). Together, these results establish a new class of RL-based causal discovery algorithms that are simultaneously provably consistent, sample-efficient, and practically scalable, marking a decisive step toward unifying empirical performance with rigorous finite-sample theory.

因果发现强化学习博弈论可扩展性

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