提出新指标揭示大模型预测排序规律，补足传统方法的不足。

Scaling laws aim to accurately predict model performance across different scales. Existing scaling-law studies almost exclusively rely on cross-entropy as the evaluation metric. However, cross-entropy provides only a partial view of performance: it measures the absolute probability assigned to the correct token, but ignores the relative ordering between correct and incorrect tokens. Yet, relative ordering is crucial for language models, such as in greedy-sampling scenario. To address this limitation, we investigate scaling from the perspective of relative ordering. We first propose the Relative-Based Probability (RBP) metric, which quantifies the probability that the correct token is ranked among the top predictions. Building on this metric, we establish the Relative-Based Scaling Law, which characterizes how RBP improves with increasing model size. Through extensive experiments on four datasets and four model families spanning five orders of magnitude, we demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of this law. Finally, we illustrate the broad application of this law with two examples, namely providing a deeper explanation of emergence phenomena and facilitating finding fundamental theories of scaling laws. In summary, the Relative-Based Scaling Law complements the cross-entropy perspective and contributes to a more complete understanding of scaling large language models. Thus, it offers valuable insights for both practical development and theoretical exploration.