arXiv:2510.20416physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-10被引 8

GraphDOP用图模型直接从观测数据预测天气,自动捕捉地球系统各部分的耦合关系。

Learning Coupled Earth System Dynamics with GraphDOP

  • 基于图神经网络,将多源观测数据统一嵌入共享隐空间
  • 在北极快速海冰冻结、飓风引发海洋降温等事件上表现优异
  • 无需物理模型耦合,适合追求端到端数据驱动的气候研究者

地球系统不同组成部分(如海洋、大气、陆地和冰冻圈)之间的相互作用是全球天气格局的关键驱动力。现代数值天气预报系统通常分别运行各分量模型,并通过接口显式耦合以模拟组分间交换。准确表征这些耦合相互作用仍是气象预报中重大的科学与技术挑战。GraphDOP是一种基于图的机器学习模型,能够直接从原始卫星和地面观测数据中进行天气预报,不依赖再分析产品或传统物理驱动的数值天气预报模型。GraphDOP同时将覆盖整个地球系统的多种观测源信息嵌入共享隐空间,使预测能隐式捕捉跨域相互作用,无需任何显式耦合。本文展示了一系列案例研究,说明GraphDOP在耦合过程起关键作用的事件中的预测能力,包括北极快速海冰冻结、飓风伊恩期间混合引起的海洋表层冷却以及2022年欧洲严重热浪。结果表明,直接从地球系统观测中学习可有效表征并传播跨组分相互作用,为实现单一模型的物理一致端到端数据驱动地球系统预测提供了有前景的路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Interactions between different components of the Earth System (e.g. ocean, atmosphere, land and cryosphere) are a crucial driver of global weather patterns. Modern Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems typically run separate models of the different components, explicitly coupled across their interfaces to additionally model exchanges between the different components. Accurately representing these coupled interactions remains a major scientific and technical challenge of weather forecasting. GraphDOP is a graph-based machine learning model that learns to forecast weather directly from raw satellite and in-situ observations, without reliance on reanalysis products or traditional physics-based NWP models. GraphDOP simultaneously embeds information from diverse observation sources spanning the full Earth system into a shared latent space. This enables predictions that implicitly capture cross-domain interactions in a single model without the need for any explicit coupling. Here we present a selection of case studies which illustrate the capability of GraphDOP to forecast events where coupled processes play a particularly key role. These include rapid sea-ice freezing in the Arctic, mixing-induced ocean surface cooling during Hurricane Ian and the severe European heat wave of 2022. The results suggest that learning directly from Earth System observations can successfully characterise and propagate cross-component interactions, offering a promising path towards physically consistent end-to-end data-driven Earth System prediction with a single model.

地球系统图神经网络天气预报数据驱动

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