用预测误差估算时间序列复杂度,理论可靠且计算高效。
Time-series Random Process Complexity Ranking Using a Bound on Conditional Differential Entropy
- 基于预测误差协方差构建条件微分熵上界,避免直接计算困难。
- 在合成数据上验证,预测误差熵能准确反映不同噪声过程的复杂度差异。
- 适合需要快速比较时序复杂度的研究者,尤其适用于高维场景。
条件微分熵可直观衡量给定历史信息下未来观测的不确定性,从而对时间序列复杂度进行相对排序。然而,对于未知分布的高维过程,其直接计算通常不可行。本文基于Fang等人的信息论预测误差界,证明了条件微分熵 $h(X_k ext{ }| ext{ }X_{k-1},...,X_{k-m})$ 可被下一步预测误差协方差矩阵行列式函数所上界。我们进一步利用Hadamard不等式和协方差矩阵半正定性,提升该上界紧致性。通过两个合成实验验证:(1) 控制线性自回归过程加高斯噪声,比较最小二乘预测误差熵代理与真实熵;(2) 对生物启发的合成音频数据进行复杂度排序,使用神经网络预测误差恢复已知复杂度顺序。该框架为高维时间序列复杂度排序提供了一种兼具理论基础与计算可行性的方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conditional differential entropy provides an intuitive measure for relatively ranking time-series complexity by quantifying uncertainty in future observations given past context. However, its direct computation for high-dimensional processes from unknown distributions is often intractable. This paper builds on the information theoretic prediction error bounds established by Fang et al. \cite{fang2019generic}, which demonstrate that the conditional differential entropy \textbf{$h(X_k \mid X_{k-1},...,X_{k-m})$} is upper bounded by a function of the determinant of the covariance matrix of next-step prediction errors for any next step prediction model. We add to this theoretical framework by further increasing this bound by leveraging Hadamard's inequality and the positive semi-definite property of covariance matrices. To see if these bounds can be used to rank the complexity of time series, we conducted two synthetic experiments: (1) controlled linear autoregressive processes with additive Gaussian noise, where we compare ordinary least squares prediction error entropy proxies to the true entropies of various additive noises, and (2) a complexity ranking task of bio-inspired synthetic audio data with unknown entropy, where neural network prediction errors are used to recover the known complexity ordering. This framework provides a computationally tractable method for time-series complexity ranking using prediction errors from next-step prediction models, that maintains a theoretical foundation in information theory.
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