融合新闻语义与金融数据,提升波动率预测准确性
Fusing Narrative Semantics for Financial Volatility Forecasting
- 用深度模型统一处理数值数据与新闻文本,实现多模态融合
- 在S&P 500和NASDAQ数据上,预测误差降低12.3%~18.7%
- 适合量化交易、风险管理等需要实时决策的金融场景
我们提出M2VN:一种基于深度学习的多模态波动率预测框架,将时间序列金融数据与非结构化新闻信息相融合。M2VN利用深度神经网络解决该领域两大挑战:(i) 对齐并融合异构数据模态(数值金融数据与文本信息);(ii) 缓解可能破坏模型有效性的前瞻偏差。为此,M2VN结合开源市场特征与由最新提出的时点语言模型Time Machine GPT生成的新闻嵌入,确保时间一致性。引入辅助对齐损失以增强结构化与非结构化数据在深度架构中的整合。大量实验表明,M2VN持续优于现有基线模型,凸显其在动态市场中进行风险管理和金融决策的实用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce M2VN: Multi-Modal Volatility Network, a novel deep learning-based framework for financial volatility forecasting that unifies time series features with unstructured news data. M2VN leverages the representational power of deep neural networks to address two key challenges in this domain: (i) aligning and fusing heterogeneous data modalities, numerical financial data and textual information, and (ii) mitigating look-ahead bias that can undermine the validity of financial models. To achieve this, M2VN combines open-source market features with news embeddings generated by Time Machine GPT, a recently introduced point-in-time LLM, ensuring temporal integrity. An auxiliary alignment loss is introduced to enhance the integration of structured and unstructured data within the deep learning architecture. Extensive experiments demonstrate that M2VN consistently outperforms existing baselines, underscoring its practical value for risk management and financial decision-making in dynamic markets.
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