用数据驱动方法优化住院跌倒风险评估,提升预测准确性与可解释性。
An interpretable data-driven approach to optimizing clinical fall risk assessment
- 基于临床知识约束的评分优化模型,融合电子病历数据。
- 模型AUC-ROC达0.91,显著优于原工具的0.86。
- 兼顾可解释性与鲁棒性,适合医疗系统落地应用。
本研究旨在通过数据驱动建模方法,使约翰霍普金斯跌倒风险评估工具(JHFRAT)的跌倒风险预测更契合临床有意义指标。对2022年3月至2023年10月期间三家约翰霍普金斯医疗系统医院的54,209例住院患者进行回顾性分析,其中20,208例为高跌倒风险,13,941例为低跌倒风险。采用约束评分优化(CSO)模型处理JHFRAT评估数据及额外电子健康记录(EHR)变量,以融入临床知识并保持可解释性。结果显示,CSO模型性能显著优于现有JHFRAT(CSO AUC-ROC=0.91,JHFRAT AUC-ROC=0.86)。即使不使用EHR变量,CSO表现仍稳定。尽管基准黑箱模型XGBoost性能更优(AUC-ROC=0.94),但CSO在风险标签变化下更具鲁棒性。该证据基础方法为医疗机构系统性优化住院跌倒预防方案和患者安全提供支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In this study we aim to better align fall risk prediction from the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) with additional clinically meaningful measures via a data-driven modelling approach. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 54,209 inpatient admissions from three Johns Hopkins Health System hospitals between March 2022 and October 2023. A total of 20,208 admissions were included as high fall risk encounters, and 13,941 were included as low fall risk encounters. To incorporate clinical knowledge and maintain interpretability, we employed constrained score optimization (CSO) models on JHFRAT assessment data and additional electronic health record (EHR) variables. The model demonstrated significant improvements in predictive performance over the current JHFRAT (CSO AUC-ROC=0.91, JHFRAT AUC-ROC=0.86). The constrained score optimization models performed similarly with and without the EHR variables. Although the benchmark black-box model (XGBoost), improves upon the performance metrics of the knowledge-based constrained logistic regression (AUC-ROC=0.94), the CSO demonstrates more robustness to variations in risk labelling. This evidence-based approach provides a robust foundation for health systems to systematically enhance inpatient fall prevention protocols and patient safety using data-driven optimization techniques, contributing to improved risk assessment and resource allocation in healthcare settings.
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