arXiv:2510.21889stat.MLcs.LG2025-10被引 2

用新方法同时追踪因果影响的起始与持续时间,提升预测与归因精度。

Bridging Prediction and Attribution: Identifying Forward and Backward Causal Influence Ranges Using Assimilative Causal Inference

  • 基于贝叶斯数据同化构建前后向因果影响范围数学框架
  • 无需经验阈值,可量化因果影响的开始与持续时长
  • 适用于复杂系统如气候突变与大气阻塞机制分析

因果推断旨在识别变量间的因果关系。传统方法依赖数据揭示因果链,而新发展的同化因果推断(ACI)将观测数据与动力模型结合,利用贝叶斯数据同化从可观测效应反推原因,并通过不确定性降低来量化因果联系。ACI可识别瞬时因果关系及随时间变化的因果角色反转。除识别因果连接外,关键挑战在于确定因果影响范围(CIR),即因果影响何时启动及持续多久。本文利用ACI建立前向与后向CIR的数学严格形式,前向CIR量化原因的持续时间影响,后向CIR追溯效应触发的起始时刻,分别刻画每个瞬时阶段的因果可预测性与结果归因性。引入客观且稳健的度量指标,无需经验阈值。开发计算高效的近似算法,支持一大类非线性动力系统的闭式表达。数值模拟表明,该前后向CIR框架为探测复杂动力系统提供新可能,推动地球系统中分岔驱动与噪声诱导临界点研究,揭示干扰变量对影响范围判断的影响,并阐明赤道区域大气阻塞机制。研究成果对科学、政策与决策具有直接意义。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with dynamical models. It utilizes Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes back from observed effects by quantifying the reduction in uncertainty. ACI advances the detection of instantaneous causal relationships and the intermittent reversal of causal roles over time. Beyond identifying causal connections, an equally important challenge is determining the associated causal influence range (CIR), indicating when causal influences emerged and for how long they persist. In this paper, ACI is employed to develop mathematically rigorous formulations of both forward and backward CIRs at each time. The forward CIR quantifies the temporal impact of a cause, while the backward CIR traces the onset of triggers for an observed effect, thus characterizing causal predictability and attribution of outcomes at each transient phase, respectively. Objective and robust metrics for both CIRs are introduced, eliminating the need for empirical thresholds. Computationally efficient approximation algorithms to compute CIRs are developed, which facilitate the use of closed-form expressions for a broad class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Numerical simulations demonstrate how this forward and backward CIR framework provides new possibilities for probing complex dynamical systems. It advances the study of bifurcation-driven and noise-induced tipping points in Earth systems, investigates the impact from resolving the interfering variables when determining the influence ranges, and elucidates atmospheric blocking mechanisms in the equatorial region. These results have direct implications for science, policy, and decision-making.

因果推断动力系统气候建模

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。