用动态图模型分析美国实体清单25年制裁演变，揭示地缘博弈策略
Temporal Graph Theoretic Analysis of Geopolitical Dynamics in the U.S. Entity List
- 将实体清单转化为时间分层的双模图，捕捉制裁事件动态
- 发现25年间制裁呈现升级、持续与协同等动态模式
- 为研究出口管制的地缘政治影响提供可复现的计算框架
出口管制已成为美国经济外交最突出的工具之一，旨在阻断竞争对手获取敏感技术、保障美国供应链安全、维护国家安全并塑造地缘竞争格局。在各类工具中，美国实体清单最为显著，但其演变机制仍缺乏深入研究。本文提出一种新颖的时间图结构框架，将实体清单文件从静态名单转化为地缘战略的动态表征。我们构建了首个基于事件的美国政府外国实体列入数据集，并将其建模为时间双模图。在此基础上，发展多层次分析方法，揭示角色转变、执法策略及更广泛的制裁生态体系。应用于25年数据后，该框架揭示了静态视角无法捕捉的动态模式，包括升级、持续与协调特征。本研究进一步表明，时间图分析能为出口管制的地缘政治动态提供系统性计算洞见。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Export controls have become one of America's most prominent tools of economic statecraft. They aim to block rival countries' access to sensitive technologies, safeguard U.S. supply chains, protect national security, and shape geopolitical competition. Among various instruments, the U.S. Entity List has emerged as the most salient, yet its dynamics remain underexplored. This paper introduces a novel temporal graph framework that transforms the Entity List documents from a static registry of foreign entities of concern into a dynamic representation of geopolitical strategy. We construct the first event-based dataset of U.S. government foreign entity designations and model them as a temporal bipartite graph. Building on this representation, we develop a multi-level analytical approach that reveals shifting roles, enforcement strategy, and broader sanction ecosystems. Applied to 25 years of data, the framework uncovers dynamic patterns of escalation, persistence, and coordination that static views cannot capture. More broadly, our study demonstrates how temporal graph analysis offers systematic computational insights into the geopolitical dynamics of export controls.
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