arXiv:2510.22050cs.AIcs.LG2025-10

让机器学会可干预的因果解释,突破纯预测模型的黑箱局限。

Towards Error-Centric Intelligence II: Energy-Structured Causal Models

  • 用能量函数定义因果机制,支持局部修改与干预
  • 揭示传统训练导致表征纠缠,源于编码器能量的规范模糊性
  • 适用于追求理解而非仅预测的智能系统

当前机器学习以预测准确率为优化目标,但顶尖模型仍为因果黑箱:其内部表示缺乏可干预的因果语义。我们主张概念转向:智能是构建与修正可验证解释的能力——关于可操纵结构的断言,明确哪些变化、哪些保持不变。解释超越预测,要求在机制层面独立测试与修正。本文提出计算解释,即从观测映射到可干预因果说明的机制。通过能量结构因果模型(ESCM),将机制表达为约束(能量函数或向量场),干预通过局部修改这些约束实现。该设计使内部结构在解释层面上可操控:明确哪些关系必须成立、哪些可变、改变后产生何结果。在ESCM框架下实例化结构因果原则LAP与ICM,分析经验风险最小化导致表征断裂与纠缠,根源在于编码器能量对的规范模糊性。在弱条件下,ESCM可恢复标准因果模型语义。基于前作提出的原理(LAP、ICM、CAP)及智能即解释建构与批判的定义,本文提供了一套面向理解型系统的因果推理形式语言。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Contemporary machine learning optimizes for predictive accuracy, yet systems that achieve state of the art performance remain causally opaque: their internal representations provide no principled handle for intervention. We can retrain such models, but we cannot surgically edit specific mechanisms while holding others fixed, because learned latent variables lack causal semantics. We argue for a conceptual reorientation: intelligence is the ability to build and refine explanations, falsifiable claims about manipulable structure that specify what changes and what remains invariant under intervention. Explanations subsume prediction but demand more: causal commitments that can be independently tested and corrected at the level of mechanisms. We introduce computational explanations, mappings from observations to intervention ready causal accounts. We instantiate these explanations with Energy Structured Causal Models (ESCMs), in which mechanisms are expressed as constraints (energy functions or vector fields) rather than explicit input output maps, and interventions act by local surgery on those constraints. This shift makes internal structure manipulable at the level where explanations live: which relations must hold, which can change, and what follows when they do. We provide concrete instantiations of the structural-causal principles LAP and ICM in the ESCM context, and also argue that empirical risk minimization systematically produces fractured, entangled representations, a failure we analyze as gauge ambiguity in encoder energy pairs. Finally, we show that under mild conditions, ESCMs recover standard SCM semantics. Building on Part I's principles (LAP, ICM, CAP) and its definition of intelligence as explanation-building under criticism, this paper offers a formal language for causal reasoning in systems that aspire to understand, not merely to predict.

因果模型解释性AI能量函数可干预性

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