arXiv:2510.22260cs.CV2025-10NeurIPS被引 4

预测事故未来时刻的危险分数,提升道路安全预警准确性

Accident Anticipation via Temporal Occurrence Prediction

  • 用未来多个时间点的事故分数替代当前帧风险评分
  • 在0.5~1.5秒前预警时,召回率与提前量均优于现有方法
  • 引入精确的时间戳监督和新评估协议,减少误报

事故预判旨在在线预测潜在碰撞,以及时发出警告提升道路安全。现有方法通常对每一帧输出一个风险评分作为危险指示,但其依赖模糊的二值标签(事故视频中所有帧均标记为正例),而实际上风险随时间连续变化,导致学习不稳并引发误报。为此,本文提出新范式:将预测目标从当前帧风险评分改为直接估计未来多个时间步(如0.1秒至2.0秒)的事故分数,利用精确标注的事故发生时间作为监督信号。方法采用片段级编码器联合建模空间与时间动态,并设计基于Transformer的时序解码器,通过专用时序查询同时预测所有未来时域的事故分数。此外,提出改进的评估协议:仅在误报率(FAR)处于可接受范围时报告事故前时间(TTA)与召回率(在0.5秒、1.0秒、1.5秒预事故间隔下评估),确保结果实用性。实验表明,在真实误报率约束下,本方法在召回率与TTA上均表现更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accident anticipation aims to predict potential collisions in an online manner, enabling timely alerts to enhance road safety. Existing methods typically predict frame-level risk scores as indicators of hazard. However, these approaches rely on ambiguous binary supervision (labeling all frames in accident videos as positive) despite the fact that risk varies continuously over time, leading to unreliable learning and false alarms. To address this, we propose a novel paradigm that shifts the prediction target from current-frame risk scoring to directly estimating accident scores at multiple future time steps (e.g., 0.1s-2.0s ahead), leveraging precisely annotated accident timestamps as supervision. Our method employs a snippet-level encoder to jointly model spatial and temporal dynamics, and a Transformer-based temporal decoder that predicts accident scores for all future horizons simultaneously using dedicated temporal queries. Furthermore, we introduce a refined evaluation protocol that reports Time-to-Accident (TTA) and recall (evaluated at multiple pre-accident intervals (0.5s, 1.0s, and 1.5s)) only when the false alarm rate (FAR) remains within an acceptable range, ensuring practical relevance. Experiments show that our method achieves superior performance in both recall and TTA under realistic FAR constraints.

事故预测时序建模视频理解安全预警

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