让模型学会识别未知,避免在不确定时盲目自信。
Epistemic Deep Learning: Enabling Machine Learning Models to Know When They Do Not Know
- 用随机集理论构建新网络,量化模型对未知的不确定性
- 在异常数据下准确识别高风险预测,降低误判率
- 适合自动驾驶、医疗诊断等高风险场景使用
机器学习虽成果显著,但在安全关键领域部署受限于无法有效管理不确定性,面对分布外数据、对抗扰动或环境波动时易产生过度自信且不可靠的预测。本文提出埃皮斯坦克深度学习(Epistemic Deep Learning),推进埃皮斯坦克人工智能范式,显式建模和量化源于训练数据有限、偏倚或不完整所引发的埃皮斯坦克不确定性(区别于不可消除的随机不确定性),使模型能在高不确定性时识别自身局限并拒绝盲目决策。核心贡献是提出随机集神经网络(RS-NN),利用随机集理论对类别集合进行信念函数预测,通过置信集宽度反映埃皮斯坦克不确定性;该方法已应用于大型语言模型(LLMs)及自主赛车气象分类任务。此外,本文建立统一评估框架用于不确定性感知分类器。大量实验表明,融入埃皮斯坦克意识不仅降低过度自信带来的风险,更推动人工智能向‘知其所不知’的可靠系统演进。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning has achieved remarkable successes, yet its deployment in safety-critical domains remains hindered by an inherent inability to manage uncertainty, resulting in overconfident and unreliable predictions when models encounter out-of-distribution data, adversarial perturbations, or naturally fluctuating environments. This thesis, titled Epistemic Deep Learning: Enabling Machine Learning Models to 'Know When They Do Not Know', addresses these critical challenges by advancing the paradigm of Epistemic Artificial Intelligence, which explicitly models and quantifies epistemic uncertainty: the uncertainty arising from limited, biased, or incomplete training data, as opposed to the irreducible randomness of aleatoric uncertainty, thereby empowering models to acknowledge their limitations and refrain from overconfident decisions when uncertainty is high. Central to this work is the development of the Random-Set Neural Network (RS-NN), a novel methodology that leverages random set theory to predict belief functions over sets of classes, capturing the extent of epistemic uncertainty through the width of associated credal sets, applications of RS-NN, including its adaptation to Large Language Models (LLMs) and its deployment in weather classification for autonomous racing. In addition, the thesis proposes a unified evaluation framework for uncertainty-aware classifiers. Extensive experiments validate that integrating epistemic awareness into deep learning not only mitigates the risks associated with overconfident predictions but also lays the foundation for a paradigm shift in artificial intelligence, where the ability to 'know when it does not know' becomes a hallmark of robust and dependable systems. The title encapsulates the core philosophy of this work, emphasizing that true intelligence involves recognizing and managing the limits of one's own knowledge.
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