arXiv:2510.22680cs.ROcs.AI2025-10被引 3

让自动驾驶知道何时不确定,提升复杂路况下的安全性。

Uncertainty-Aware Autonomous Vehicles: Predicting the Road Ahead

  • 用随机集神经网络显式量化预测不确定性
  • 在真实赛车系统中实现更高精度与更好不确定性校准
  • 适合关注自动驾驶安全与鲁棒性的研发者

近年来,自动驾驶感知系统迅速发展,具备了准确解读环境的能力。然而,面对罕见事件或分布外数据时,传统系统仍易产生过度自信的错误预测。本文将一种不确定性感知的图像分类器集成到自动驾驶软件栈中,采用随机集神经网络(RS-NN)显式量化预测不确定性。与传统CNN或贝叶斯方法不同,RS-NN可输出类别集合上的信念函数,使系统在新奇或模糊场景中清晰识别并提示不确定性。该系统在真实世界的自动驾驶赛车软件栈中测试,由RS-NN判断前方道路布局并提供预测不确定性。结果表明,相较于传统CNN与贝叶斯神经网络,RS-NN在多种道路条件下均实现显著更高的准确率与更优的不确定性校准性能。将RS-NN融入基于ROS的车辆控制流程后,系统可根据预测不确定性动态调节车速:在高置信度下保持高速,在不确定性高时主动减速,从而在保障性能的同时提升安全性。这些结果验证了不确定性感知神经网络(特别是RS-NN)作为实现更安全、更鲁棒自动驾驶的实际解决方案的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) perception systems have advanced rapidly in recent years, providing vehicles with the ability to accurately interpret their environment. Perception systems remain susceptible to errors caused by overly-confident predictions in the case of rare events or out-of-sample data. This study equips an autonomous vehicle with the ability to 'know when it is uncertain', using an uncertainty-aware image classifier as part of the AV software stack. Specifically, the study exploits the ability of Random-Set Neural Networks (RS-NNs) to explicitly quantify prediction uncertainty. Unlike traditional CNNs or Bayesian methods, RS-NNs predict belief functions over sets of classes, allowing the system to identify and signal uncertainty clearly in novel or ambiguous scenarios. The system is tested in a real-world autonomous racing vehicle software stack, with the RS-NN classifying the layout of the road ahead and providing the associated uncertainty of the prediction. Performance of the RS-NN under a range of road conditions is compared against traditional CNN and Bayesian neural networks, with the RS-NN achieving significantly higher accuracy and superior uncertainty calibration. This integration of RS-NNs into Robot Operating System (ROS)-based vehicle control pipeline demonstrates that predictive uncertainty can dynamically modulate vehicle speed, maintaining high-speed performance under confident predictions while proactively improving safety through speed reductions in uncertain scenarios. These results demonstrate the potential of uncertainty-aware neural networks - in particular RS-NNs - as a practical solution for safer and more robust autonomous driving.

自动驾驶不确定性神经网络安全

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