将交易员行为模型与时间序列预测模型结合,生成更真实的订单簿数据。
TABL-ABM: A Hybrid Framework for Synthetic LOB Generation
- 用Chiarella行为模型与TABL预测模型融合生成订单簿数据。
- 生成的价格动态符合市场典型特征,但微观结构细节仍有缺失。
- 适合研究高频交易模拟或金融数据生成的学者与工程师。
深度学习在金融交易中的应用催生了对高保真金融时间序列数据的需求。现有生成模型通常依赖大量历史数据和复杂架构,如自回归、扩散模型或结构简单的时序注意力双线性层(TABL)。基于代理的订单簿建模可通过交易者行为机制再现交易活动。本文将经典的日内交易仿真框架Chiarella模型与性能优异的多变量时间序列预测模型TABL相结合,并引入一种新型删除订单流模拟方法,耦合匹配引擎构建仿真系统。通过典型事实检验生成数据的合理性,结果表明该方法能生成符合真实价格动态的合成数据;然而深入分析显示,市场微观结构部分未能准确复现,说明需引入更复杂的交易者行为以捕捉尾部事件。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The recent application of deep learning models to financial trading has heightened the need for high fidelity financial time series data. This synthetic data can be used to supplement historical data to train large trading models. The state-of-the-art models for the generative application often rely on huge amounts of historical data and large, complicated models. These models range from autoregressive and diffusion-based models through to architecturally simpler models such as the temporal-attention bilinear layer. Agent-based approaches to modelling limit order book dynamics can also recreate trading activity through mechanistic models of trader behaviours. In this work, we demonstrate how a popular agent-based framework for simulating intraday trading activity, the Chiarella model, can be combined with one of the most performant deep learning models for forecasting multi-variate time series, the TABL model. This forecasting model is coupled to a simulation of a matching engine with a novel method for simulating deleted order flow. Our simulator gives us the ability to test the generative abilities of the forecasting model using stylised facts. Our results show that this methodology generates realistic price dynamics however, when analysing deeper, parts of the markets microstructure are not accurately recreated, highlighting the necessity for including more sophisticated agent behaviors into the modeling framework to help account for tail events.
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