arXiv:2510.22818cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 2

融合统计与深度学习,提升大城市空气质量预测精度。

Air Quality Prediction Using LOESS-ARIMA and Multi-Scale CNN-BiLSTM with Residual-Gated Attention

  • 先用LOESS分离趋势、季节和残差,再分治建模
  • 在三座城市对多种污染物预测误差降低5-8%
  • 擅长捕捉突发污染事件,适合城市环保决策

印度大都市如德里、加尔各答和孟买面临空气污染的严峻挑战,污染物浓度突增给及时干预带来困难。由于线性趋势、季节变化和剧烈非线性波动共存,空气质量指数(AQI)预测极具挑战。本文提出一种混合预测框架,结合LOESS分解、ARIMA建模与带残差门控注意力机制的多尺度CNN-BiLSTM网络。首先通过LOESS将AQI序列分解为趋势、季节和残差成分,其中ARIMA建模平滑部分,深度学习模块捕捉残差中的多尺度波动。模型超参数通过统一自适应多阶段元启发式优化器(UAMMO)调优,整合多种优化策略以实现高效收敛。在2021-2023年中央污染控制委员会提供的三大城市数据集上,该方法在PM2.5、O3、CO和NOx的预测中持续优于统计、深度学习及混合基线模型,最大均方误差降低5-8%,所有污染物的R²得分均超过0.94。结果表明该框架具有强鲁棒性、对突发污染事件敏感,适用于城市空气质量治理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Air pollution remains a critical environmental and public health concern in Indian megacities such as Delhi, Kolkata, and Mumbai, where sudden spikes in pollutant levels challenge timely intervention. Accurate Air Quality Index (AQI) forecasting is difficult due to the coexistence of linear trends, seasonal variations, and volatile nonlinear patterns. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates LOESS decomposition, ARIMA modeling, and a multi-scale CNN-BiLSTM network with a residual-gated attention mechanism. The LOESS step separates the AQI series into trend, seasonal, and residual components, with ARIMA modeling the smooth components and the proposed deep learning module capturing multi-scale volatility in the residuals. Model hyperparameters are tuned via the Unified Adaptive Multi-Stage Metaheuristic Optimizer (UAMMO), combining multiple optimization strategies for efficient convergence. Experiments on 2021-2023 AQI datasets from the Central Pollution Control Board show that the proposed method consistently outperforms statistical, deep learning, and hybrid baselines across PM2.5, O3, CO, and NOx in three major cities, achieving up to 5-8% lower MSE and higher R^2 scores (>0.94) for all pollutants. These results demonstrate the framework's robustness, sensitivity to sudden pollution events, and applicability to urban air quality management.

空气质量预测混合模型时间序列深度学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。