用动态时间规整选相似站点,实现10天稳定雾霾预测
Long-Term PM2.5 Forecasting Using a DTW-Enhanced CNN-GRU Model
- 通过DTW匹配历史污染模式,智能选择相似监测站
- 24小时预测R²达0.91,10天预测仍保持R²=0.73
- 轻量模型无需外部工具,适合监测点少的缺算力城市
可靠的长期PM2.5浓度预测对公共卫生预警系统至关重要,但现有深度学习方法在48小时以上预测中难以维持稳定性,尤其在监测网络稀疏的城市。本文提出一种结合动态时间规整(DTW)与CNN-GRU架构的深度学习框架,用于伊朗伊斯法罕市的长时序PM2.5预测,该城市具有复杂的污染动态和有限的监测覆盖。相比依赖高计算成本的Transformer或外部模拟工具的方法,本研究提出三项创新:(i) 基于DTW的历史采样,识别同类型站点间的相似污染模式;(ii) 融合气象特征的轻量级CNN-GRU架构;(iii) 针对稀疏网络优化的可扩展设计。基于8个监测站多年小时级数据的实验验证表明,该方法优于现有先进深度学习模型,在24小时预测中达到R² = 0.91。尤为关键的是,首次实现稳定10天预测(240小时,R² = 0.73),无性能退化,满足关键预警系统需求。该框架具备高效计算能力且不依赖外部工具,特别适用于资源受限的城市环境部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reliable long-term forecasting of PM2.5 concentrations is critical for public health early-warning systems, yet existing deep learning approaches struggle to maintain prediction stability beyond 48 hours, especially in cities with sparse monitoring networks. This paper presents a deep learning framework that combines Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) for intelligent station similarity selection with a CNN-GRU architecture to enable extended-horizon PM2.5 forecasting in Isfahan, Iran, a city characterized by complex pollution dynamics and limited monitoring coverage. Unlike existing approaches that rely on computationally intensive transformer models or external simulation tools, our method integrates three key innovations: (i) DTW-based historical sampling to identify similar pollution patterns across peer stations, (ii) a lightweight CNN-GRU architecture augmented with meteorological features, and (iii) a scalable design optimized for sparse networks. Experimental validation using multi-year hourly data from eight monitoring stations demonstrates superior performance compared to state-of-the-art deep learning methods, achieving R2 = 0.91 for 24-hour forecasts. Notably, this is the first study to demonstrate stable 10-day PM2.5 forecasting (R2 = 0.73 at 240 hours) without performance degradation, addressing critical early-warning system requirements. The framework's computational efficiency and independence from external tools make it particularly suitable for deployment in resource-constrained urban environments.
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