构建可响应气候灾害的数字孪生系统,提升城市韧性与公平性。
Hazard-Responsive Digital Twin for Climate-Driven Urban Resilience and Equity
- 融合物理模型与多源数据,动态调整传感器输入权重以保持预测稳定。
- 在灾害叠加场景下,室内温度预测误差小,热风险降低7%至17%。
- 适用于城市规划、应急管理,尤其关注低收入社区等脆弱群体。
野火引发的断电与城市热浪等复合气候灾害威胁城市稳定与公平。本文提出一种灾害响应型数字孪生(H-RDT),结合物理引导神经网络建模、多模态数据融合与公平性感知风险分析,实现城市尺度的应急响应。在一个包含多种建筑类型和人口结构的合成街区中,模拟野火-断电-热浪级联事件表明,即使部分传感器失效,H-RDT仍能保持室内温度预测稳定(约31–33℃),准确再现断电导致的温度骤升与恢复过程。基于强化学习的融合模块自适应调整物联网、无人机与卫星数据权重,维持时空覆盖;公平性映射识别出高脆弱性区域(如学校、诊所、低收入住宅)。前瞻性干预措施(如提前开启避暑中心、微电网共享)使加权热风险降低11%–13%,95%分位数风险减少7%–17%,过热时长最多缩短9%。该框架为真实城市部署提供可迁移基础,打通物理灾害建模与社会公平、决策智能的链接,推动数字城市韧性向自适应、学习型、公平导向发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Compounding climate hazards, such as wildfire-induced outages and urban heatwaves, challenge the stability and equity of cities. We present a Hazard-Responsive Digital Twin (H-RDT) that combines physics-informed neural network modeling, multimodal data fusion, and equity-aware risk analytics for urban-scale response. In a synthetic district with diverse building archetypes and populations, a simulated wildfire-outage-heatwave cascade shows that H-RDT maintains stable indoor temperature predictions (approximately 31 to 33 C) under partial sensor loss, reproducing outage-driven surges and recovery. The reinforcement learning based fusion module adaptively reweights IoT, UAV, and satellite inputs to sustain spatiotemporal coverage, while the equity-adjusted mapping isolates high-vulnerability clusters (schools, clinics, low-income housing). Prospective interventions, such as preemptive cooling-center activation and microgrid sharing, reduce population-weighted thermal risk by 11 to 13 percent, shrink the 95th-percentile (tail) risk by 7 to 17 percent, and cut overheating hours by up to 9 percent. Beyond the synthetic demonstration, the framework establishes a transferable foundation for real-city implementation, linking physical hazard modeling with social equity and decision intelligence. The H-RDT advances digital urban resilience toward adaptive, learning-based, and equity-centered decision support for climate adaptation.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。