arXiv:2510.23630cs.LGcs.AI2025-10

让大模型从数字变化中推理出可解释的事件,突破纯数值理解瓶颈。

NUM2EVENT: Interpretable Event Reasoning from Numerical time-series

  • 构建基于代理引导与点过程的合成数据生成框架,解决标注数据少难题。
  • 在多领域数据集上事件召回率和精确率显著超越主流大模型基线。
  • 适合需要从财报、传感器等数值流中挖掘隐含事件的研究者使用。

大语言模型(LLMs)在多模态推理方面表现优异,但对纯数值时间序列的理解仍有限。现有方法多聚焦于预测或趋势描述,未能揭示驱动数值变化的潜在事件或解释其推理过程。本文提出“数字转事件”推理任务,旨在从数值输入中推断出可解释的结构化事件,即使缺乏文本信息也可完成。为应对数据稀缺与语义对齐挑战,我们设计了一个推理感知框架,包含代理引导事件提取器(AGE)、基于标记多变量霍克斯过程的合成生成器(EveDTS)以及结合时间序列编码器与结构化解码器的两阶段微调流程。模型能显式分析数值变化,生成中间解释,并输出结构化事件假设。在多领域数据集上的实验表明,该方法在事件级精确率与召回率上均显著优于强基准模型。结果表明,该工作为连接量化推理与语义理解开辟新路径,使大模型能够直接从数值动态中解释并预测事件。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive multimodal reasoning capabilities, yet their understanding of purely numerical time-series signals remains limited. Existing approaches mainly focus on forecasting or trend description, without uncovering the latent events that drive numerical changes or explaining the reasoning process behind them. In this work, we introduce the task of number-to-event reasoning and decoding, which aims to infer interpretable structured events from numerical inputs, even when current text is unavailable. To address the data scarcity and semantic alignment challenges, we propose a reasoning-aware framework that integrates an agent-guided event extractor (AGE), a marked multivariate Hawkes-based synthetic generator (EveDTS), and a two-stage fine-tuning pipeline combining a time-series encoder with a structured decoder. Our model explicitly reasons over numerical changes, generates intermediate explanations, and outputs structured event hypotheses. Experiments on multi-domain datasets show that our method substantially outperforms strong LLM baselines in event-level precision and recall. These results suggest a new direction for bridging quantitative reasoning and semantic understanding, enabling LLMs to explain and predict events directly from numerical dynamics.

事件推理时间序列大模型可解释性

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