用大模型融合文本与飞行轨迹,提升航班延误预测精度。
LLM4Delay: Flight Delay Prediction via Cross-Modality Adaptation of Large Language Models and Aircraft Trajectory Representation
- 将飞行数据、天气报告等文本与多条飞行轨迹联合建模
- 通过实例级投影实现跨模态适配,准确率优于现有方法
- 支持动态更新预测,适合空管实时决策场景
航班延误预测已成为空中交通管理(ATM)的关键焦点,反映系统运行效率。本文提出基于大语言模型(LLM)的LLM4Delay框架,从空管人员监控飞机进入终端区(TMA)后的视角出发,整合飞行数据、气象报告和机场通告等文本信息,以及多条飞行轨迹所表征的空域状态,构建全面的延误相关上下文。通过实例级投影策略,将多轨迹表示映射至语言模态,实现跨模态有效适配,显著提升延误预测性能。相比现有ATM框架及时间序列到语言的适配方法,该框架展现出更优表现,凸显了文本与轨迹数据的互补性,并利用预训练轨迹编码器与预训练大模型的知识。框架支持随新信息持续更新预测结果,具备潜在运营应用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Flight delay prediction has become a key focus in air traffic management (ATM), as delays reflect inefficiencies in the system. This paper proposes LLM4Delay, a large language model (LLM)-based framework for predicting flight delays from the perspective of air traffic controllers monitoring aircraft after they enter the terminal maneuvering area (TMA). LLM4Delay is designed to integrate textual aeronautical information, including flight data, weather reports, and aerodrome notices, together with multiple trajectories that model airspace conditions, forming a comprehensive delay-relevant context. By jointly leveraging comprehensive textual and trajectory contexts via instance-level projection, an effective cross-modality adaptation strategy that maps multiple instance-level trajectory representations into the language modality, the framework improves delay prediction accuracy. LLM4Delay demonstrates superior performance compared to existing ATM frameworks and prior time-series-to-language adaptation methods. This highlights the complementary roles of textual and trajectory data while leveraging knowledge from both the pretrained trajectory encoder and the pretrained LLM. The proposed framework enables continuous updates to predictions as new information becomes available, indicating potential operational relevance.
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