arXiv:2510.23656cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 2

通过建模时空误差相关性,提升交通预测的准确性。

Error Adjustment Based on Spatiotemporal Correlation Fusion for Traffic Forecasting

  • 将误差视为时空自回归过程,用系数矩阵捕捉其相关性。
  • 在多个数据集上,显著提升各类预测模型的性能。
  • 适合需要高精度实时交通预测的应用场景。

深度神经网络(DNN)在交通预测研究中发挥着重要作用,因其能有效捕捉交通数据中的时空模式。现有方法通常假设各时间步和空间位置的预测误差相互独立,但实际交通数据因时间和空间特性存在自相关性,这一假设并不成立,导致现有模型性能受限且未被充分重视。为此,本文提出一种通用框架——时空自相关误差调整(SAEA),系统性地修正交通预测中的自相关误差。与传统假设误差为随机高斯噪声不同,SAEA将误差建模为时空向量自回归(VAR)过程,以捕捉其内在依赖关系。首先,通过系数矩阵显式建模时空误差相关性,并嵌入新设计的损失函数;其次,引入结构稀疏正则化,利用先验道路网络信息,确保学习到的系数矩阵符合实际路网结构;最后,设计测试时误差动态调整推理流程,实时优化预测结果。在多个交通数据集上的实验表明,该方法在多种预测模型中均显著提升了性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep neural networks (DNNs) play a significant role in an increasing body of research on traffic forecasting due to their effectively capturing spatiotemporal patterns embedded in traffic data. A general assumption of training the said forecasting models via mean squared error estimation is that the errors across time steps and spatial positions are uncorrelated. However, this assumption does not really hold because of the autocorrelation caused by both the temporality and spatiality of traffic data. This gap limits the performance of DNN-based forecasting models and is overlooked by current studies. To fill up this gap, this paper proposes Spatiotemporally Autocorrelated Error Adjustment (SAEA), a novel and general framework designed to systematically adjust autocorrelated prediction errors in traffic forecasting. Unlike existing approaches that assume prediction errors follow a random Gaussian noise distribution, SAEA models these errors as a spatiotemporal vector autoregressive (VAR) process to capture their intrinsic dependencies. First, it explicitly captures both spatial and temporal error correlations by a coefficient matrix, which is then embedded into a newly formulated cost function. Second, a structurally sparse regularization is introduced to incorporate prior spatial information, ensuring that the learned coefficient matrix aligns with the inherent road network structure. Finally, an inference process with test-time error adjustment is designed to dynamically refine predictions, mitigating the impact of autocorrelated errors in real-time forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified on different traffic datasets. Results across a wide range of traffic forecasting models show that our method enhances performance in almost all cases.

交通预测误差校正时空建模

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