用机器学习预测等离子体处理对作物发芽的提升效果
A machine learning framework integrating seed traits and plasma parameters for predicting germination uplift in crops
- 基于种子特性与等离子参数构建机器学习模型
- 最佳模型预测准确率R²达0.925，发芽提升预测误差仅2.62%
- 可为精准农业提供等离子体处理优化决策支持
低温等离子体（CP）是一种环保的促进种子发芽方法，但因种子-等离子体-环境间复杂相互作用，结果难以预测。本研究首次提出机器学习框架，用于预测大豆、大麦、向日葵、萝卜和番茄在介质阻挡放电（DBD）等离子体下的发芽提升效果。对比测试了梯度提升（GB）、XGBoost、Extra Trees（ET）及混合模型，其中ET表现最优（R²=0.919；RMSE=3.21；MAE=2.62），经特征筛选后进一步提升至R²=0.925。工程分析揭示存在激素样响应：电压低于7 kV或时间短于200 s时效应微弱，7–15 kV、200–500 s时发芽率最高，超过20 kV或暴露时间过长则下降。放电功率亦为关键因素，≥100 W且暴露时间短时发芽率最大。物种层面，萝卜（MAE=1.46）与大豆（MAE=2.05）预测一致性高，向日葵略波动（MAE=3.80）。品种层面，Williams（MAE=1.23）与Sari（1.33）预测良好，而Arian（2.86）与Nyírségi fekete（3.74）偏差较大。该框架已集成至MLflow，形成精准农业中优化等离子体种子处理的决策支持工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Cold plasma (CP) is an eco-friendly method to enhance seed germination, yet outcomes remain difficult to predict due to complex seed--plasma--environment interactions. This study introduces the first machine learning framework to forecast germination uplift in soybean, barley, sunflower, radish, and tomato under dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma. Among the models tested (GB, XGB, ET, and hybrids), Extra Trees (ET) performed best (R\textsuperscript{2} = 0.919; RMSE = 3.21; MAE = 2.62), improving to R\textsuperscript{2} = 0.925 after feature reduction. Engineering analysis revealed a hormetic response: negligible effects at $<$7 kV or $<$200 s, maximum germination at 7--15 kV for 200--500 s, and reduced germination beyond 20 kV or prolonged exposures. Discharge power was also a dominant factor, with germination rate maximizing at $\geq$100 W with low exposure time. Species and cultivar-level predictions showed radish (MAE = 1.46) and soybean (MAE = 2.05) were modeled with high consistency, while sunflower remained slightly higher variable (MAE = 3.80). Among cultivars, Williams (MAE = 1.23) and Sari (1.33) were well predicted, while Arian (2.86) and Ny\'ırségi fekete (3.74) were comparatively poorly captured. This framework was also embedded into MLflow, providing a decision-support tool for optimizing CP seed germination in precision agriculture.
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