arXiv:2510.23794cs.LG2025-10

用可学习扰动提升台风预测精度,降低计算成本。

Revealing the Potential of Learnable Perturbation Ensemble Forecast Model for Tropical Cyclone Prediction

  • 提出可学习扰动方案生成集合预报,替代传统高成本方法。
  • 在路径预测上优于欧洲中期天气预报中心,且集合离散度更低。
  • 更准确捕捉大尺度环流和台风暖心区水汽湍流动能分布。

热带气旋(TCs)是极具破坏性且内在不确定的天气系统。集合预报有助于量化不确定性,但传统方法受限于高计算成本和难以充分表征大气非线性。本文提出的FuXi-ENS引入可学习扰动方案生成集合,代表一种新型基于AI的预报范式。我们系统比较了FuXi-ENS与ECMWF-ENS在2018年全球90个热带气旋上的表现,涵盖相关物理变量、路径与强度预报,以及相应的动力与热力学场。结果表明,FuXi-ENS在预测TC相关物理变量方面具有明显优势,路径预测更准确且集合离散度更低,尽管其强度预报仍低于观测值。进一步的动力与热力学分析显示,FuXi-ENS更好地捕捉大尺度环流,水汽湍流动能更集中于台风暖核周围,而ECMWF-ENS则分布更为分散。这些发现凸显了可学习扰动在提升台风预报能力方面的潜力,为推进具有重大社会影响的极端天气事件的AI集合预测提供了重要启示。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to fully represent atmospheric nonlinearity. FuXi-ENS introduces a learnable perturbation scheme for ensemble generation, representing a novel AI-based forecasting paradigm. Here, we systematically compare FuXi-ENS with ECMWF-ENS using all 90 global TCs in 2018, examining their performance in TC-related physical variables, track and intensity forecasts, and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical fields. FuXi-ENS demonstrates clear advantages in predicting TC-related physical variables, and achieves more accurate track forecasts with reduced ensemble spread, though it still underestimates intensity relative to observations. Further dynamical and thermodynamical analyses reveal that FuXi-ENS better captures large-scale circulation, with moisture turbulent energy more tightly concentrated around the TC warm core, whereas ECMWF-ENS exhibits a more dispersed distribution. These findings highlight the potential of learnable perturbations to improve TC forecasting skill and provide valuable insights for advancing AI-based ensemble prediction of extreme weather events that have significant societal impacts.

台风预测集合预报AI气象可学习扰动

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