arXiv:2510.23906cs.LGcs.AI2025-10

通过深度模型分组干预,发现变量群间的复杂因果关系。

Group Interventions on Deep Networks for Causal Discovery in Subsystems

  • 用深度网络联合建模多变量组结构,再施加分组干预。
  • 在模拟与真实数据上均优于现有方法,准确识别群间因果关系。
  • 适合神经科学、气候系统等需要揭示群体因果的领域。

因果发现能揭示变量间的复杂关系,提升预测与决策能力,尤其在非线性多变量时间序列中意义重大。然而,现有方法多关注成对因果关系,忽视变量群(即子系统)间的集体影响。本文提出gCDMI,一种新型多组因果发现方法,利用训练好的深度神经网络进行分组干预,并通过模型不变性检验推断因果关系。方法包含三步:首先,用深度学习联合建模所有时间序列的组间结构;其次,对训练好的模型施加分组干预;最后,通过模型不变性测试判断变量组间是否存在因果联系。我们在模拟数据集上验证了该方法,结果表明其在识别群级因果关系方面显著优于现有方法。此外,在脑网络和气候生态系统等真实数据集上也进行了验证,结果表明结合分组干预与不变性测试,可有效揭示复杂因果结构,为神经科学与气候科学等领域提供重要洞见。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily focus on pairwise cause-effect relationships, overlooking interactions among groups of variables, i.e., subsystems and their collective causal influence. In this study, we introduce gCDMI, a novel multi-group causal discovery method that leverages group-level interventions on trained deep neural networks and employs model invariance testing to infer causal relationships. Our approach involves three key steps. First, we use deep learning to jointly model the structural relationships among groups of all time series. Second, we apply group-wise interventions to the trained model. Finally, we conduct model invariance testing to determine the presence of causal links among variable groups. We evaluate our method on simulated datasets, demonstrating its superior performance in identifying group-level causal relationships compared to existing methods. Additionally, we validate our approach on real-world datasets, including brain networks and climate ecosystems. Our results highlight that applying group-level interventions to deep learning models, combined with invariance testing, can effectively reveal complex causal structures, offering valuable insights for domains such as neuroscience and climate science.

因果发现深度学习群组干预时间序列

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