arXiv:2510.24049cs.LGcs.AI2025-10被引 4

用历史数据引导预测,让模型长期输出更符合物理规律。

Learning from History: A Retrieval-Augmented Framework for Spatiotemporal Prediction

  • 从历史数据中检索相似状态,用真实演化路径指导预测
  • 在气象、湍流和火灾模拟中,长期预测误差显著降低
  • 适合需要高物理一致性的科学建模与长期预测任务

复杂物理系统的精准且长期的时空预测仍是科学计算中的基础挑战。尽管深度学习模型作为强大的参数化近似器已取得显著进展,但其在长期自回归推演中误差累积,常导致物理上不合理的结果。这一缺陷源于其纯参数化特性,难以捕捉系统内在动力学的全部约束。为此,我们提出一种新颖的检索增强预测(Retrieval-Augmented Prediction, RAP)框架,融合深度网络的预测能力与历史数据的真实参考。RAP的核心思想是利用历史演化范例作为系统局部动力学的非参数估计。对于任意给定状态,高效检索大规模数据库中最相似的历史类似物,其真实未来演化路径作为参考目标。该目标并非损失函数中的硬约束,而是作为专门双流架构的强动态条件输入,有效引导模型预测走向物理可行轨迹。在气象学、湍流和火灾模拟的广泛基准测试中,RAP不仅超越现有最先进方法,还显著优于强基线的仅基于类比的预报。更重要的是,RAP生成的预测在长期推演中更符合物理现实,有效抑制了误差发散。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and long-term spatiotemporal prediction for complex physical systems remains a fundamental challenge in scientific computing. While deep learning models, as powerful parametric approximators, have shown remarkable success, they suffer from a critical limitation: the accumulation of errors during long-term autoregressive rollouts often leads to physically implausible artifacts. This deficiency arises from their purely parametric nature, which struggles to capture the full constraints of a system's intrinsic dynamics. To address this, we introduce a novel \textbf{Retrieval-Augmented Prediction (RAP)} framework, a hybrid paradigm that synergizes the predictive power of deep networks with the grounded truth of historical data. The core philosophy of RAP is to leverage historical evolutionary exemplars as a non-parametric estimate of the system's local dynamics. For any given state, RAP efficiently retrieves the most similar historical analog from a large-scale database. The true future evolution of this analog then serves as a \textbf{reference target}. Critically, this target is not a hard constraint in the loss function but rather a powerful conditional input to a specialized dual-stream architecture. It provides strong \textbf{dynamic guidance}, steering the model's predictions towards physically viable trajectories. In extensive benchmarks across meteorology, turbulence, and fire simulation, RAP not only surpasses state-of-the-art methods but also significantly outperforms a strong \textbf{analog-only forecasting baseline}. More importantly, RAP generates predictions that are more physically realistic by effectively suppressing error divergence in long-term rollouts.

时空预测检索增强物理一致性科学建模

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