arXiv:2510.24909cs.MAcs.AI2025-10

提出可计算的信任模型,模拟合作竞争关系中信任的动态演化。

Computational Foundations for Strategic Coopetition: Formalizing Trust and Reputation Dynamics

  • 用双层结构建模信任:即时信任响应当前行为,声誉追踪违规历史。
  • 信任不对称更新:合作缓慢积累信任,违规则迅速破坏,形成滞后效应和信任上限。
  • 支持从i*模型直接转换为可计算模型,适合研究企业联盟等复杂关系。

现代社会技术系统中多利益相关方同时合作与竞争,其信任关系随重复互动动态演变。现有i*等概念模型仅能定性表达信任,缺乏计算分析机制;而多智能体系统的计算信任模型虽有算法更新,却未基于捕捉战略依赖关系的概念框架。本文提出一种扩展博弈论基础的计算信任模型,将信任分为即时信任(响应当前行为)与声誉(追踪违规历史)两层。信任通过非对称更新机制演化:合作逐步建立信任,违规则急剧削弱信任,产生滞后效应与信任天花板,限制关系恢复。我们构建了从i*依赖网络到计算模型的结构化转换框架。在78,125组参数配置下验证了负面偏差、滞后效应与累积损害放大现象的稳健出现。基于雷诺-日产联盟(1999–2025)案例的实证分析获得49/60验证点(81.7%),成功复现五个阶段的信任演化,包括危机与恢复期。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern socio-technical systems increasingly involve multi-stakeholder environments where actors simultaneously cooperate and compete. These coopetitive relationships exhibit dynamic trust evolution based on observed behavior over repeated interactions. While conceptual modeling languages like i* represent trust relationships qualitatively, they lack computational mechanisms for analyzing how trust changes with behavioral evidence. Conversely, computational trust models from multi-agent systems provide algorithmic updating but lack grounding in conceptual models that capture strategic dependencies covering mixed motives of actors. This technical report bridges this gap by developing a computational trust model that extends game-theoretic foundations for strategic coopetition with dynamic trust evolution. Building on companion work that achieved 58/60 validation (96.7%) for logarithmic specifications, we introduce trust as a two-layer system with immediate trust responding to current behavior and reputation tracking violation history. Trust evolves through asymmetric updating where cooperation builds trust gradually while violations erode it sharply, creating hysteresis effects and trust ceilings that constrain relationship recovery. We develop a structured translation framework enabling practitioners to instantiate computational trust models from i* dependency networks encompassing mixed motives of actors. Comprehensive experimental validation across 78,125 parameter configurations establishes robust emergence of negativity bias, hysteresis effects, and cumulative damage amplification. Empirical validation using the Renault-Nissan Alliance case study (1999-2025) achieves 49/60 validation points (81.7%), successfully reproducing documented trust evolution across five distinct relationship phases including crisis and recovery periods.

信任建模协同竞争动态演化企业联盟

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