arXiv:2510.25091cs.AI2025-10被引 1

用超图建模股票关系,结合大模型和专家系统提升预测精度。

H3M-SSMoEs: Hypergraph-based Multimodal Learning with LLM Reasoning and Style-Structured Mixture of Experts

  • 构建局部与全局超图,动态捕捉股票间时空依赖关系。
  • 融合大模型语义理解,实现量价与文本信息的精准对齐。
  • 分领域专家结构自适应切换,提升市场变化应对能力。

股价走势预测因复杂的时序依赖、异构模态及动态演变的股票关联而极具挑战。现有方法难以在可扩展框架内统一结构化、语义化与适应性建模。本文提出H3M-SSMoEs,一种基于超图的多模态架构,融合大语言模型推理与风格结构化的混合专家机制,包含三项创新:(1) 多上下文多模态超图,通过局部上下文超图(LCH)与全局上下文超图(GCH)分层捕捉细粒度时空动态及持久的跨股依赖,采用共享跨模态超边与詹森-香农散度加权机制实现自适应关系学习与跨模态对齐;(2) 基于冻结大语言模型与轻量适配器的增强推理模块,语义融合并对齐量化数据与文本模态,注入领域金融知识;(3) 风格结构化混合专家(SSMoEs),整合通用市场专家与行业专用专家,由可学习风格向量参数化,实现稀疏激活下的场景感知专业化。在三大股市数据集上的大量实验表明,该模型在预测准确率与投资回报上均优于现有最优方法,同时具备良好风险控制能力。代码与权重已开源于GitHub:https://github.com/PeilinTime/H3M-SSMoEs。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Stock movement prediction remains fundamentally challenging due to complex temporal dependencies, heterogeneous modalities, and dynamically evolving inter-stock relationships. Existing approaches often fail to unify structural, semantic, and regime-adaptive modeling within a scalable framework. This work introduces H3M-SSMoEs, a novel Hypergraph-based MultiModal architecture with LLM reasoning and Style-Structured Mixture of Experts, integrating three key innovations: (1) a Multi-Context Multimodal Hypergraph that hierarchically captures fine-grained spatiotemporal dynamics via a Local Context Hypergraph (LCH) and persistent inter-stock dependencies through a Global Context Hypergraph (GCH), employing shared cross-modal hyperedges and Jensen-Shannon Divergence weighting mechanism for adaptive relational learning and cross-modal alignment; (2) a LLM-enhanced reasoning module, which leverages a frozen large language model with lightweight adapters to semantically fuse and align quantitative and textual modalities, enriching representations with domain-specific financial knowledge; and (3) a Style-Structured Mixture of Experts (SSMoEs) that combines shared market experts and industry-specialized experts, each parameterized by learnable style vectors enabling regime-aware specialization under sparse activation. Extensive experiments on three major stock markets demonstrate that H3M-SSMoEs surpasses state-of-the-art methods in both superior predictive accuracy and investment performance, while exhibiting effective risk control. Datasets, source code, and model weights are available at our GitHub repository: https://github.com/PeilinTime/H3M-SSMoEs.

股票预测超图神经网络多模态学习混合专家

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