arXiv:2510.25370cs.CL2025-10

用大模型从论文和专利中提取技术关系图,追踪前沿技术融合趋势。

Monitoring Transformative Technological Convergence Through LLM-Extracted Semantic Entity Triple Graphs

  • 通过大模型提取文本中的技术实体与关系,构建大规模语义图谱。
  • 在27万篇arXiv论文和近万项美国专利中验证,能发现已知与新兴融合模式。
  • 适合科技政策制定者、创新管理者及技术趋势研究者使用。

预测颠覆性技术仍是重大挑战,尤其在信息通信技术等快速演进领域。传统专家方法难以跟上短周期创新和早期术语模糊的问题。本文提出一种数据驱动的新方法,通过识别技术融合模式来监测颠覆性技术的出现。利用大语言模型从非结构化文本中提取语义三元组,构建技术实体与关系的大规模图谱。提出新方法对语义相似的技术术语进行分组(名词拼接),并开发基于图的指标检测融合信号。流程包括多阶段过滤、领域关键词聚类和主题共现的时间趋势分析。在两个互补数据集上验证:278,625篇arXiv预印本(2017–2024)用于捕捉早期科学信号,9,793项美国专利(2018–2024)用于追踪下游商业发展。结果表明,该方法可识别既有和新兴的融合模式,提供一种基于全文分析的可扩展、通用的技术预测框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting transformative technologies remains a critical but challenging task, particularly in fast-evolving domains such as Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Traditional expert-based methods struggle to keep pace with short innovation cycles and ambiguous early-stage terminology. In this work, we propose a novel, data-driven pipeline to monitor the emergence of transformative technologies by identifying patterns of technological convergence. Our approach leverages advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract semantic triples from unstructured text and construct a large-scale graph of technology-related entities and relations. We introduce a new method for grouping semantically similar technology terms (noun stapling) and develop graph-based metrics to detect convergence signals. The pipeline includes multi-stage filtering, domain-specific keyword clustering, and a temporal trend analysis of topic co-occurence. We validate our methodology on two complementary datasets: 278,625 arXiv preprints (2017--2024) to capture early scientific signals, and 9,793 USPTO patent applications (2018-2024) to track downstream commercial developments. Our results demonstrate that the proposed pipeline can identify both established and emerging convergence patterns, offering a scalable and generalizable framework for technology forecasting grounded in full-text analysis.

技术预测大模型知识图谱专利分析

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