用大气模型改写海洋温度预测,算得快还准。
Leveraging an Atmospheric Foundational Model for Subregional Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting
- 用预训练大气模型微调做海温预测,省算力
- 误差仅0.119K,相关系数达0.997
- 适合关注海洋气候与资源管理的团队
准确预测海洋变量对理解气候变化、管理海洋资源和优化海上活动至关重要。传统海洋预报依赖数值模型,但存在计算成本高、可扩展性差的问题。本研究将原为大气预报设计的Aurora深度学习基础模型,应用于加那利上升流系统的海表温度(SST)预测。通过在高分辨率海洋再分析数据上进行分阶段微调,结合纬度加权误差指标与超参数优化,模型成功捕捉复杂时空模式,同时降低计算开销。实验结果显示,模型达到0.119K的低均方根误差(RMSE),异常相关系数(ACC)约0.997。模型能有效再现大尺度海温结构,但在沿海区域细节刻画上仍有不足。该工作展示了跨领域预训练模型在海洋应用中的可行性,未来将引入更多海洋变量、提升空间分辨率,并探索物理信息神经网络以增强可解释性,助力气候建模与海洋预测精度提升,支持环境与经济决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The accurate prediction of oceanographic variables is crucial for understanding climate change, managing marine resources, and optimizing maritime activities. Traditional ocean forecasting relies on numerical models; however, these approaches face limitations in terms of computational cost and scalability. In this study, we adapt Aurora, a foundational deep learning model originally designed for atmospheric forecasting, to predict sea surface temperature (SST) in the Canary Upwelling System. By fine-tuning this model with high-resolution oceanographic reanalysis data, we demonstrate its ability to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns while reducing computational demands. Our methodology involves a staged fine-tuning process, incorporating latitude-weighted error metrics and optimizing hyperparameters for efficient learning. The experimental results show that the model achieves a low RMSE of 0.119K, maintaining high anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC $\approx 0.997$). The model successfully reproduces large-scale SST structures but faces challenges in capturing finer details in coastal regions. This work contributes to the field of data-driven ocean forecasting by demonstrating the feasibility of using deep learning models pre-trained in different domains for oceanic applications. Future improvements include integrating additional oceanographic variables, increasing spatial resolution, and exploring physics-informed neural networks to enhance interpretability and understanding. These advancements can improve climate modeling and ocean prediction accuracy, supporting decision-making in environmental and economic sectors.
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