arXiv:2510.25793cs.LGcs.IT2025-10

提出可自适应学习偏差的算法,判断何时能提升多智能体系统性能。

Optimal Information Combining for Multi-Agent Systems Using Adaptive Bias Learning

  • 将偏差分解为可学习与不可学部分,用可学习率判断是否值得纠正
  • 实验显示高可学习率系统可恢复40%-70%理论最大性能提升
  • 适合需在资源有限下做决策的监控、众包等实际系统部署

现代多智能体系统(如基础设施监测传感器网络、众包平台)常因随环境变化的系统性偏差导致性能严重下降。现有方法或忽略偏差,造成次优决策;或依赖昂贵校准,实践中难实现。本文回答核心问题:何时能学习并纠正未知偏差以接近最优性能?我们构建理论框架,将偏差分解为可从可观测协变量预测的系统性成分和不可约的随机成分,引入可学习率(即偏差方差中可预测部分的比例)。证明性能提升上限由该比率决定,为系统设计提供量化依据。提出自适应偏差学习与最优组合(ABLOC)算法,通过闭式解迭代学习偏差校正变换和组合权重,保证收敛至理论边界。实验表明,高可学习率系统可恢复40%-70%理论最大性能提升,低可学习率则收益微弱,验证了诊断标准对实际部署的指导价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern multi-agent systems ranging from sensor networks monitoring critical infrastructure to crowdsourcing platforms aggregating human intelligence can suffer significant performance degradation due to systematic biases that vary with environmental conditions. Current approaches either ignore these biases, leading to suboptimal decisions, or require expensive calibration procedures that are often infeasible in practice. This performance gap has real consequences: inaccurate environmental monitoring, unreliable financial predictions, and flawed aggregation of human judgments. This paper addresses the fundamental question: when can we learn and correct for these unknown biases to recover near-optimal performance, and when is such learning futile? We develop a theoretical framework that decomposes biases into learnable systematic components and irreducible stochastic components, introducing the concept of learnability ratio as the fraction of bias variance predictable from observable covariates. This ratio determines whether bias learning is worthwhile for a given system. We prove that the achievable performance improvement is fundamentally bounded by this learnability ratio, providing system designers with quantitative guidance on when to invest in bias learning versus simpler approaches. We present the Adaptive Bias Learning and Optimal Combining (ABLOC) algorithm, which iteratively learns bias-correcting transformations while optimizing combination weights through closedform solutions, guaranteeing convergence to these theoretical bounds. Experimental validation demonstrates that systems with high learnability ratios can recover significant performance (we achieved 40%-70% of theoretical maximum improvement in our examples), while those with low learnability show minimal benefit, validating our diagnostic criteria for practical deployment decisions.

多智能体偏差学习优化组合

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