arXiv:2510.26353cs.LG2025-10被引 1

让金融预测模型既可靠又可解释,提升信任与合规性。

Towards Explainable and Reliable AI in Finance

  • 用提示工程避免时间序列预测方向错误
  • 结合可靠性评估器过滤不可靠预测,降低误报率
  • 通过符号推理嵌入领域规则,实现透明解释

金融预测越来越多地采用大型神经网络模型,但其不透明性带来了信任和监管合规的挑战。本文提出几种面向金融领域的可解释且可靠的AI方法:首先,描述时间序列基础模型Time-LLM如何利用提示工程避免错误的方向性预测;其次,证明将时间序列基础模型与可靠性估计器结合,可有效过滤不可靠预测;第三,主张通过符号推理编码领域规则以实现透明的决策解释。实验基于股票和加密货币数据表明,该架构能减少误报并支持选择性执行。通过融合预测性能、可靠性估计与规则推理,该框架推动了可透明审计的金融AI系统发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial forecasting increasingly uses large neural network models, but their opacity raises challenges for trust and regulatory compliance. We present several approaches to explainable and reliable AI in finance. \emph{First}, we describe how Time-LLM, a time series foundation model, uses a prompt to avoid a wrong directional forecast. \emph{Second}, we show that combining foundation models for time series forecasting with a reliability estimator can filter our unreliable predictions. \emph{Third}, we argue for symbolic reasoning encoding domain rules for transparent justification. These approaches shift emphasize executing only forecasts that are both reliable and explainable. Experiments on equity and cryptocurrency data show that the architecture reduces false positives and supports selective execution. By integrating predictive performance with reliability estimation and rule-based reasoning, our framework advances transparent and auditable financial AI systems.

金融AI可解释性可靠性评估

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