arXiv:2510.27443cs.LG2025-10中稿 · 2025 ACM SIGSPATIA…

用多模态模型精准预测火灾后植被损失,助力生态恢复决策。

MVeLMA: Multimodal Vegetation Loss Modeling Architecture for Predicting Post-fire Vegetation Loss

  • 融合多源数据的端到端架构,捕捉火灾后生态变化特征。
  • 在县一级预测中超越多个前沿模型,提升准确性。
  • 生成高风险区域地图,适合灾后救援与政策制定者使用。

理解火灾后的植被损失对制定有效的生态恢复策略至关重要,但因生态系统动态演变需长时间观测而具挑战性。现有研究未充分考虑各类影响因素及其多模态交互,且多数模型缺乏可解释性。本文提出一种名为MVeLMA(Multimodal Vegetation Loss Modeling Architecture)的新型端到端机器学习流程,用于预测县级尺度的火灾后植被损失。该模型采用多模态特征融合与堆叠集成架构,结合概率建模实现不确定性估计。实验表明,其在多个基准和先进模型上表现更优。同时,生成植被损失置信度图,识别高风险县区,有助于精准开展生态恢复工作。研究成果可支持未来灾害救援规划、生态政策制定及野生动物恢复管理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding post-wildfire vegetation loss is critical for developing effective ecological recovery strategies and is often challenging due to the extended time and effort required to capture the evolving ecosystem features. Recent works in this area have not fully explored all the contributing factors, their modalities, and interactions with each other. Furthermore, most research in this domain is limited by a lack of interpretability in predictive modeling, making it less useful in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end ML pipeline called MVeLMA (\textbf{M}ultimodal \textbf{Ve}getation \textbf{L}oss \textbf{M}odeling \textbf{A}rchitecture) to predict county-wise vegetation loss from fire events. MVeLMA uses a multimodal feature integration pipeline and a stacked ensemble-based architecture to capture different modalities while also incorporating uncertainty estimation through probabilistic modeling. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model outperforms several state-of-the-art (SOTA) and baseline models in predicting post-wildfire vegetation loss. Furthermore, we generate vegetation loss confidence maps to identify high-risk counties, thereby helping targeted recovery efforts. The findings of this work have the potential to inform future disaster relief planning, ecological policy development, and wildlife recovery management.

植被损失多模态火灾预测生态恢复

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