arXiv:2511.00084cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

用机器学习自动预测桌游怪物等级,提升设计效率。

Application of predictive machine learning in pen & paper RPG game design

  • 基于有序回归构建怪物等级预测模型。
  • 建立专用数据集并验证模型有效性。
  • 结合游戏设计知识评估,适合游戏开发者参考。

近年来,桌面角色扮演游戏市场快速增长。为提升玩家体验并获得竞争优势,出版商正探索AI技术的整合。其中一大挑战是设计新怪物并合理估算其难度等级。目前缺乏自动化方法,仅依赖人工测试与专家评估,虽准确但耗时费力。本文综述并评估了当前最先进的等级预测方法,构建了专门用于等级估计的数据集,并开发了一个模拟人类设计思路的基准模型,以对比机器学习算法与传统出版商方法的差异。同时,设计了一套基于领域知识的评估流程,确保模型性能可比较且有意义。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In recent years, the pen and paper RPG market has experienced significant growth. As a result, companies are increasingly exploring the integration of AI technologies to enhance player experience and gain a competitive edge. One of the key challenges faced by publishers is designing new opponents and estimating their challenge level. Currently, there are no automated methods for determining a monster's level; the only approaches used are based on manual testing and expert evaluation. Although these manual methods can provide reasonably accurate estimates, they are time-consuming and resource-intensive. Level prediction can be approached using ordinal regression techniques. This thesis presents an overview and evaluation of state-of-the-art methods for this task. It also details the construction of a dedicated dataset for level estimation. Furthermore, a human-inspired model was developed to serve as a benchmark, allowing comparison between machine learning algorithms and the approach typically employed by pen and paper RPG publishers. In addition, a specialized evaluation procedure, grounded in domain knowledge, was designed to assess model performance and facilitate meaningful comparisons.

游戏设计机器学习桌游等级预测

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