用双超图网络捕捉股市时序因果与全局关系,提升预测精准度。
MaGNet: A Mamba Dual-Hypergraph Network for Stock Prediction via Temporal-Causal and Global Relational Learning
- 设计Mamba双超图架构,融合时序因果与全局概率关系建模。
- 在6个主要股指上实现更优预测效果与投资回报率。
- 适合关注量化交易与多因子建模的研究者和从业者。
股票趋势预测对盈利交易策略和组合管理至关重要,但受市场波动、复杂时序动态及多维个股关系影响,仍具挑战性。现有方法难以有效捕捉时序依赖与动态个股交互,常忽略截面市场影响,依赖静态相关性,对节点和边采用统一处理,并混淆多样关系。本文提出MaGNet,一种基于Mamba的双超图网络,包含三项创新:(1) MAGE模块,结合双向Mamba与自适应门控机制进行上下文时序建模,融入稀疏专家混合层以动态适应不同市场状态,辅以多头注意力捕捉全局依赖;(2) 特征级与个股级二维时空注意力模块,实现多变量特征与跨股依赖的精确融合,增强信息量同时保留数据结构,衔接时序建模与关系推理;(3) 双超图框架:时序因果超图(TCH)捕获带时间约束的细粒度因果依赖,全局概率超图(GPH)通过软超边分配与詹森-香农散度加权机制建模全市场模式,协同解耦局部时序影响与即时全局结构,实现多尺度关系学习。在六个主要股指上的大量实验表明,MaGNet在预测性能与投资回报方面均优于当前最优方法,且具备稳健的风险管理能力。代码已公开:https://github.com/PeilinTime/MaGNet。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Stock trend prediction is crucial for profitable trading strategies and portfolio management yet remains challenging due to market volatility, complex temporal dynamics and multifaceted inter-stock relationships. Existing methods struggle to effectively capture temporal dependencies and dynamic inter-stock interactions, often neglecting cross-sectional market influences, relying on static correlations, employing uniform treatments of nodes and edges, and conflating diverse relationships. This work introduces MaGNet, a novel Mamba dual-hyperGraph Network for stock prediction, integrating three key innovations: (1) a MAGE block, which leverages bidirectional Mamba with adaptive gating mechanisms for contextual temporal modeling and integrates a sparse Mixture-of-Experts layer to enable dynamic adaptation to diverse market conditions, alongside multi-head attention for capturing global dependencies; (2) Feature-wise and Stock-wise 2D Spatiotemporal Attention modules enable precise fusion of multivariate features and cross-stock dependencies, effectively enhancing informativeness while preserving intrinsic data structures, bridging temporal modeling with relational reasoning; and (3) a dual hypergraph framework consisting of the Temporal-Causal Hypergraph (TCH) that captures fine-grained causal dependencies with temporal constraints, and Global Probabilistic Hypergraph (GPH) that models market-wide patterns through soft hyperedge assignments and Jensen-Shannon Divergence weighting mechanism, jointly disentangling localized temporal influences from instantaneous global structures for multi-scale relational learning. Extensive experiments on six major stock indices demonstrate MaGNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both superior predictive performance and exceptional investment returns with robust risk management capabilities. Codes available at: https://github.com/PeilinTime/MaGNet.
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