将趋势与季节性分离建模,提升时序生成的可解释性与质量。
Effective Series Decomposition and Components Learning for Time Series Generation
- 用MLP学趋势,自适应小波蒸馏学季节性,分块建模更清晰。
- 在8个真实数据集上表现领先,多窗口长序列生成也稳定可靠。
- 适合需要可解释时序生成的科研与工业场景。
时序生成旨在建模底层数据分布并生成真实时序数据。趋势和季节性等关键成分驱动时间波动,但多数现有方法未采用可解释的分解方式,难以合成有意义的趋势与季节模式。为此,我们提出季节-趋势扩散模型(STDiffusion),融合扩散概率模型与可学习的序列分解技术,增强生成过程的可解释性。模型将趋势与季节性学习分置于独立模块:多层感知机(MLP)捕捉趋势,自适应小波蒸馏实现多分辨率季节成分学习。该分解机制提升了多尺度下的可解释性。此外,设计了综合修正机制,确保生成组件内部一致性及相互间有意义关系。在8个真实数据集上的实证研究显示,STDiffusion在时序生成任务中达到最先进水平。进一步拓展至多窗口长序列生成,结果可靠,凸显其鲁棒性与通用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series generation focuses on modeling the underlying data distribution and resampling to produce authentic time series data. Key components, such as trend and seasonality, drive temporal fluctuations, yet many existing approaches fail to employ interpretative decomposition methods, limiting their ability to synthesize meaningful trend and seasonal patterns. To address this gap, we introduce Seasonal-Trend Diffusion (STDiffusion), a novel framework for multivariate time series generation that integrates diffusion probabilistic models with advanced learnable series decomposition techniques, enhancing the interpretability of the generation process. Our approach separates the trend and seasonal learning into distinct blocks: a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) structure captures the trend, while adaptive wavelet distillation facilitates effective multi-resolution learning of seasonal components. This decomposition improves the interpretability of the model on multiple scales. In addition, we designed a comprehensive correction mechanism aimed at ensuring that the generated components exhibit a high degree of internal consistency and preserve meaningful interrelationships with one another. Our empirical studies on eight real-world datasets demonstrate that STDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in time series generation tasks. Furthermore, we extend the model's application to multi-window long-sequence time series generation, which delivered reliable results and highlighted its robustness and versatility.
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