arXiv:2511.00989cs.LG2025-11被引 1

Hydra通过双维度记忆机制,高效捕捉多变量时间序列的时序与变量间依赖关系。

Hydra: Dual Exponentiated Memory for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

  • 设计双头元上下文记忆模块,实现时间与变量维度的二维递归建模。
  • 在多个任务中优于现有方法,长时序建模效率提升10倍且保持性能。
  • 适合需要高精度建模复杂时序依赖的场景,如金融、医疗和能源预测。

近年来,有效建模多变量时间序列受到广泛关注,因其在医疗、金融市场和能源管理等领域的广泛应用。当前主流的时间序列模型(如Transformer、MLP、线性模型)在单变量或短期预测中表现良好,但存在三大缺陷:(1)具有置换等变性,缺乏时序归纳偏置,难以捕捉动态变化;(2)天然适用于单变量设定,忽略了时间与变量维度间的相互依赖;(3)对长序列建模效率低下。为此,线性循环神经网络(RNN)作为替代方案逐渐兴起,但其仅处理单序列,无法建模变量间依赖,且因加性结构易产生误差传播。本文提出Hydra,一种专为测试时记忆设计的双头元上下文记忆模块,通过优先学习更具信息量的时序模式来增强表达能力。该模型在每一步执行时间和变量两个维度的二维递归,比混合方法更强大。尽管训练为递归且不可并行,我们提出一种新的2D分块训练算法,使训练效率提升×10,同时保持模型有效性。实验表明,Hydra在多种任务(包括预测、分类、异常检测)和数据集上均显著优于当前最优基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In recent years, effectively modeling multivariate time series has gained significant popularity, mainly due to its wide range of applications, ranging from healthcare to financial markets and energy management. Transformers, MLPs, and linear models as the de facto backbones of modern time series models have shown promising results in single-variant and/or short-term forecasting. These models, however: (1) are permutation equivariant and so lack temporal inductive bias, being less expressive to capture the temporal dynamics; (2) are naturally designed for univariate setup, missing the inter-dependencies of temporal and variate dimensions; and/or (3) are inefficient for Long-term time series modeling. To overcome training and inference efficiency as well as the lack of temporal inductive bias, recently, linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have gained attention as an alternative to Transformer-based models. These models, however, are inherently limited to a single sequence, missing inter-variate dependencies, and can propagate errors due to their additive nature. In this paper, we present Hydra, a by-design two-headed meta in-context memory module that learns how to memorize patterns at test time by prioritizing time series patterns that are more informative about the data. Hydra uses a 2-dimensional recurrence across both time and variate at each step, which is more powerful than mixing methods. Although the 2-dimensional nature of the model makes its training recurrent and non-parallelizable, we present a new 2D-chunk-wise training algorithm that approximates the actual recurrence with $\times 10$ efficiency improvement, while maintaining the effectiveness. Our experimental results on a diverse set of tasks and datasets, including time series forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection show the superior performance of Hydra compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

时间序列记忆机制多变量建模

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