arXiv:2511.01181cs.CLcs.LG2025-11被引 3

用AI判断销售对话何时该放弃,省时增效。

Learning When to Quit in Sales Conversations

  • 训练语言模型模仿最优放弃策略,自动判断何时终止对话。
  • 实测减少54%失败通话时间,节省时间可使销售额提升37%。
  • 揭示人类销售员误判拒绝对话线索的局限,适合销售优化场景。

销售人员常需在持续跟进与放弃下一个客户间做动态决策。本文研究高密度外呼销售中此类决策行为,将动态筛选问题建模为最优停止问题,提出基于生成式语言模型的序列决策代理——停止代理,通过模仿事后推断出的最优停止策略,学习何时放弃对话。该方法能处理高维文本状态,适配大语言模型,支持开源与私有模型。应用于某欧洲电信公司的真实通话数据,该代理使失败通话耗时减少54%,几乎保留全部销售成果;节省的时间重新分配后,预期销售额最高提升37%。分析发现,销售员过度关注少数显性拒绝信号,且误判失败风险,反映其实时对话决策存在认知局限。结果表明,AI可纠正人类认知边界,显著提升销售团队效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Salespeople frequently face the dynamic screening decision of whether to persist in a conversation or abandon it to pursue the next lead. Yet, little is known about how these decisions are made, whether they are efficient, or how to improve them. We study these decisions in the context of high-volume outbound sales where leads are ample, but time is scarce and failure is common. We formalize the dynamic screening decision as an optimal stopping problem and develop a generative language model-based sequential decision agent - a stopping agent - that learns whether and when to quit conversations by imitating a retrospectively-inferred optimal stopping policy. Our approach handles high-dimensional textual states, scales to large language models, and works with both open-source and proprietary language models. When applied to calls from a large European telecommunications firm, our stopping agent reduces the time spent on failed calls by 54% while preserving nearly all sales; reallocating the time saved increases expected sales by up to 37%. Upon examining the linguistic cues that drive salespeople's quitting decisions, we find that they tend to overweight a few salient expressions of consumer disinterest and mispredict call failure risk, suggesting cognitive bounds on their ability to make real-time conversational decisions. Our findings highlight the potential of artificial intelligence algorithms to correct cognitively-bounded human decisions and improve salesforce efficiency.

销售自动化语言模型决策优化

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