通过动态图融合提升股票预测精度,兼顾细粒度与粗粒度特征。
Gated Fusion Enhanced Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Movement Prediction
- 构建分层图网络,捕捉股票内部属性与跨股票关联的时空模式。
- 在中美股市数据上实现最高1.4%准确率提升,回测收益更稳定。
- 适合关注金融时序建模与图神经网络应用的研究者。
由于股票市场固有的波动性及股票间复杂的相互依赖关系,准确预测股价走势仍具挑战。尽管多尺度图神经网络(GNN)在建模此类关系方面具有潜力,但常忽略两个关键问题:单只股票内部属性的细微模式对跨股相关性的影响,以及在多尺度采样过程中对粗粒度与细粒度特征的注意力偏差。为此,我们提出多尺度分层图融合网络(MS-HGFN)。该模型包含一个分层GNN模块,通过学习不同时间尺度下各股票的内部属性模式与跨属性特征,动态构建图结构,从而全面捕捉时空依赖性。此外,采用自顶向下的门控机制整合多尺度时空特征,有效保留关键粗粒度与细粒度信息,减少干扰。在真实中美股市数据集上的实验表明,MS-HGFN优于传统与先进模型,在预测准确率上最高提升1.4%,且在收益模拟中表现出更强稳定性。代码已公开于https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MS-HGFN。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately predicting stock market movements remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent volatility and complex interdependencies among stocks. Although multi-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) hold potential for modeling these relationships, they frequently neglect two key points: the subtle intra-attribute patterns within each stock affecting inter-stock correlation, and the biased attention to coarse- and fine-grained features during multi-scale sampling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MS-HGFN (Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Fusion Network). The model features a hierarchical GNN module that forms dynamic graphs by learning patterns from intra-attributes and features from inter-attributes over different time scales, thus comprehensively capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Additionally, a top-down gating approach facilitates the integration of multi-scale spatio-temporal features, preserving critical coarse- and fine-grained features without too much interference. Experiments utilizing real-world datasets from U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrate that MS-HGFN outperforms both traditional and advanced models, yielding up to a 1.4% improvement in prediction accuracy and enhanced stability in return simulations. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MS-HGFN.
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