统一模型预测灾害中人群移动,跨城市跨灾种效果更好
A Unified Model for Human Mobility Generation in Natural Disasters
- 用物理提示和元学习融合灾变共性与城市特性
- 跨城市跨灾种测试平均性能提升超13%
- 适合应急规划、资源调度等实际应用
灾害场景下的人群移动生成对资源调配、应急响应和救援协调至关重要。火灾、飓风等灾害常导致移动模式显著偏离常态,使建模更具挑战性。现有方法多依赖单一城市或特定灾害的有限数据,严重限制了模型在新场景下的泛化能力。灾害突发且不可预测,任何城市都可能遭遇无先验经验的新类型灾害。为此,我们提出统一的人群移动生成模型 UniDisMob,旨在构建一个可泛化至新灾害场景的通用框架。该模型面临两大挑战:灾种多样性与城市异质性。为此,我们设计了物理启发式提示与物理引导对齐机制,利用不同灾害后移动变化的共性规律指导生成;同时引入元学习框架,通过共享参数提取跨城市通用模式,私有参数捕捉城市特异性特征。在多个城市与灾害场景上的大量实验表明,本方法显著优于当前最优基线,平均性能提升超过13%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human mobility generation in disaster scenarios plays a vital role in resource allocation, emergency response, and rescue coordination. During disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes, human mobility patterns often deviate from their normal states, which makes the task more challenging. However, existing works usually rely on limited data from a single city or specific disaster, significantly restricting the model's generalization capability in new scenarios. In fact, disasters are highly sudden and unpredictable, and any city may encounter new types of disasters without prior experience. Therefore, we aim to develop a one-for-all model for mobility generation that can generalize to new disaster scenarios. However, building a universal framework faces two key challenges: 1) the diversity of disaster types and 2) the heterogeneity among different cities. In this work, we propose a unified model for human mobility generation in natural disasters (named UniDisMob). To enable cross-disaster generalization, we design physics-informed prompt and physics-guided alignment that leverage the underlying common patterns in mobility changes after different disasters to guide the generation process. To achieve cross-city generalization, we introduce a meta-learning framework that extracts universal patterns across multiple cities through shared parameters and captures city-specific features via private parameters. Extensive experiments across multiple cities and disaster scenarios demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving an average performance improvement exceeding 13%.
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