量子增强生成模型提升罕见事件预测能力,解决传统方法样本不足与分布偏差问题。
Quantum-Enhanced Generative Models for Rare Event Prediction
- 融合深度潜变量模型与变分量子电路,构建混合量子-经典框架。
- 在真实金融、气候和蛋白质数据上,尾部KL散度降低50%,罕见事件召回率提升。
- 适合需要高精度罕见事件建模的金融、气象与生物领域研究者。
金融崩盘、气候极端事件和生物异常等罕见事件因数量稀少且具有重尾分布而难以建模。经典深度生成模型常因低概率模式坍缩或不确定性估计不准而表现不佳。本文提出量子增强生成模型(QEGM),一种将深度潜变量模型与变分量子电路结合的混合框架。核心创新包括:(1) 联合优化重建保真度与尾部感知似然的混合损失函数;(2) 利用量子随机噪声注入增强样本多样性,缓解模式坍缩。训练采用混合循环:经典参数通过反向传播更新,量子参数使用参数移位梯度优化。在合成高斯混合数据及金融、气候、蛋白质结构等真实数据集上评估显示,相较于GAN、VAE、扩散模型等先进基线,QEGM将尾部KL散度降低最高达50%,同时提升罕见事件召回率与覆盖率校准效果。结果表明,该模型为罕见事件预测提供了一种超越纯经典方法的稳健新路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Rare events such as financial crashes, climate extremes, and biological anomalies are notoriously difficult to model due to their scarcity and heavy-tailed distributions. Classical deep generative models often struggle to capture these rare occurrences, either collapsing low-probability modes or producing poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose the Quantum-Enhanced Generative Model (QEGM), a hybrid classical-quantum framework that integrates deep latent-variable models with variational quantum circuits. The framework introduces two key innovations: (1) a hybrid loss function that jointly optimizes reconstruction fidelity and tail-aware likelihood, and (2) quantum randomness-driven noise injection to enhance sample diversity and mitigate mode collapse. Training proceeds via a hybrid loop where classical parameters are updated through backpropagation while quantum parameters are optimized using parameter-shift gradients. We evaluate QEGM on synthetic Gaussian mixtures and real-world datasets spanning finance, climate, and protein structure. Results demonstrate that QEGM reduces tail KL divergence by up to 50 percent compared to state-of-the-art baselines (GAN, VAE, Diffusion), while improving rare-event recall and coverage calibration. These findings highlight the potential of QEGM as a principled approach for rare-event prediction, offering robustness beyond what is achievable with purely classical methods.
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