arXiv:2511.02175cs.LGcs.AI2025-11被引 1

用贝叶斯深度学习处理空气质量预测中的缺失数据,提升准确性与可信度。

Tackling Incomplete Data in Air Quality Prediction: A Bayesian Deep Learning Framework for Uncertainty Quantification

  • 基于图注意力与傅里叶特征建模时空依赖,通道门控单元自适应筛选关键特征。
  • 在四种缺失模式下优于五种主流方法,预测更准且置信区间更紧致。
  • 适合移动监测等真实场景的不完整数据预测,尤其关注不确定性量化。

准确的空气质量预报对公共卫生预警、暴露评估和排放控制至关重要。实际观测数据常因采集与传输问题存在不同程度和模式的缺失,导致推断不可靠,风险评估失真,甚至引发过度自信的外推。为此,本文提出端到端的时空贝叶斯神经场框架(CGLUBNF),结合图注意力编码器与傅里叶特征,捕捉多尺度空间依赖与季节性时间动态;引入通道门控学习单元,通过可学习激活和门控残差连接自适应过滤并增强有效特征;贝叶斯推断联合优化预测分布与参数不确定性,输出点估计与校准后的预测区间。在两个真实世界数据集上系统评估,覆盖四种典型缺失模式,并对比五种先进基线。CGLUBNF 在预测精度与置信区间紧致性上均表现更优。进一步验证了多时距预测的鲁棒性,并分析了外部变量贡献。本研究为新兴传感范式(如车载移动监测)下的不完整观测时空预测提供了可靠深度学习基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

空气质量贝叶斯学习缺失数据时空建模

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。