用工作人口使用率衡量全球AI普及，发现发达地区使用率高，低收入国家有巨大潜力。
Measuring AI Diffusion: A Population-Normalized Metric for Tracking Global AI Usage
- 基于微软匿名数据估算各国工作人口中使用AI的比例。
- 147个经济体数据显示，人均GDP越高，AI使用率越高，且大模型发布后用量激增。
- 适合关注全球AI政策、数字鸿沟和市场趋势的研究者与决策者。
衡量全球人工智能扩散仍面临缺乏按人口标准化、跨国可比使用数据的挑战。本文提出AI用户占比（AI User Share）这一新指标，通过匿名微软遥测数据，估算各国工作年龄人口中实际使用AI工具的比例。该指标考虑设备访问差异和移动端扩展因素，覆盖147个经济体，提供一致且实时的全球AI扩散视图。研究发现，各国采用存在显著差异，AI用户占比与人均GDP高度相关；高使用率集中于发达经济体，但低收入国家联网人群中的潜在需求仍十分可观。此外，在重大产品发布（如2025年初DeepSeek上线）后，使用量出现明显跃升。尽管该指标仅依赖微软用户数据，可能存在偏差，但仍为理解AI全球传播提供了重要新视角。该指标可用于及时评估和制定数据驱动的AI政策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Measuring global AI diffusion remains challenging due to a lack of population-normalized, cross-country usage data. We introduce AI User Share, a novel indicator that estimates the share of each country's working-age population actively using AI tools. Built from anonymized Microsoft telemetry and adjusted for device access and mobile scaling, this metric spans 147 economies and provides consistent, real-time insight into global AI diffusion. We find wide variation in adoption, with a strong correlation between AI User Share and GDP. High uptake is concentrated in developed economies, though usage among internet-connected populations in lower-income countries reveals substantial latent demand. We also detect sharp increases in usage following major product launches, such as DeepSeek in early 2025. While the metric's reliance solely on Microsoft telemetry introduces potential biases related to this user base, it offers an important new lens into how AI is spreading globally. AI User Share enables timely benchmarking that can inform data-driven AI policy.
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