用预训练时序模型做异常预测,无需更新就能跟上新异常模式。
Forecast2Anomaly (F2A): Adapting Multivariate Time Series Foundation Models for Anomaly Prediction
- 联合预测与异常损失,让模型在异常点也能准确预报。
- 引入动态检索模块,利用历史相似场景提升预测精度。
- 零样本适配新异常,适合工业系统实时监控场景。
从不同现实世界、动态且复杂的系统中预测多变量时间序列的异常,对提前预防关键故障至关重要,可大幅降低运营成本与人力投入。然而,现有方法局限于特定系统,难以适应随时间演变的异常模式。相比之下,预训练时序基础模型(TSFMs)展现出强大的泛化和零样本预测能力。但其潜力尚未被用于异常预测——这与正常行为预测任务本质不同。为此,我们提出 Forecast2Anomaly (F2A) 框架,通过两项创新使 TSFMs 具备异常预测能力:第一,设计联合预测-异常损失,微调 TSFM 在异常时间点仍能准确预测未来信号;第二,引入检索增强生成(RAG)模块,动态检索历史相关时段,并基于此条件化预测。该模块在推理时可自适应分布漂移,无需模型更新即可追踪演化中的异常。结合定向微调与动态检索,F2A 实现了从鲁棒的零样本时序预测到零样本异常预测的跨越。在 16 个多样数据集及多个 TSFM 骨干网络上的大量实验表明,F2A 均显著优于现有先进方法,为真实应用提供了一种可扩展的零样本异常预测解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting anomalies (anomaly prediction) in multivariate time series from different real-world, dynamic, and complex systems is vital for preempting critical failures, leading to a substantial minimization in operational costs and human labor. Yet, existing methods are limited to specific systems while failing to generalize to evolving anomaly patterns over time. In contrast, pretrained Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated strong generalization and zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, their potential remains untapped for anomaly prediction, a task fundamentally different from forecasting normal behavior. Thus, we present Forecast2Anomaly (F2A), a novel framework that empowers TSFMs with anomaly prediction abilities through two key innovations. First, we propose a joint forecast-anomaly loss that fine-tunes TSFMs to accurately forecast future signals even at anomalous time points. Second, we introduce a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) module that retrieves historically relevant horizons and conditions predictions on them. This component dynamically adapts to distributional shifts at inference time, enabling F2A to track evolving anomalies without requiring model updates. By combining targeted fine-tuning with dynamic retrieval, F2A bridges the gap between robust TSFM zero-shot forecasting and zero-shot anomaly prediction. Extensive experiments across 16 diverse datasets and multiple TSFM backbones show that F2A consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, offering a scalable, zero-shot anomaly prediction solution for real-world applications.
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