arXiv:2511.03154stat.APcs.LG2025-11被引 1

提出新头车距分布模型,更好拟合混行与异质交通流。

Modeling Headway in Heterogeneous and Mixed Traffic Flow: A Statistical Distribution Based on a General Exponential Function

  • 用可变底数的指数函数建模头车距,提升灵活性。
  • 在5个数据集上表现优于6种现有分布,尤其高速路更优。
  • 参数具物理意义,适合交通仿真与自动驾驶研究者。

现有头车距分布难以准确反映异质交通(不同车型)和混行交通(人工驾驶与自动驾驶混合)的多样性行为,导致拟合效果不佳。为此,本文将指数函数的底数由欧拉数e改为实数,提升建模灵活性。该形式非概率函数,经归一化后得到闭式概率表达式。基于highD、exiD、NGSIM、Waymo、Lyft五个公开数据集开展全面实验,评估所提分布与六种现有分布在混行及异质交通流下的表现。结果表明,该分布不仅捕捉了头车距分布的基本特征,且参数具有明确物理意义。在高速公路异质交通(连续流)下性能最优;在城市道路(间断流)中,包括异质与混行场景,仍保持良好表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The ability of existing headway distributions to accurately reflect the diverse behaviors and characteristics in heterogeneous traffic (different types of vehicles) and mixed traffic (human-driven vehicles with autonomous vehicles) is limited, leading to unsatisfactory goodness of fit. To address these issues, we modified the exponential function to obtain a novel headway distribution. Rather than employing Euler's number (e) as the base of the exponential function, we utilized a real number base to provide greater flexibility in modeling the observed headway. However, the proposed is not a probability function. We normalize it to calculate the probability and derive the closed-form equation. In this study, we utilized a comprehensive experiment with five open datasets: highD, exiD, NGSIM, Waymo, and Lyft to evaluate the performance of the proposed distribution and compared its performance with six existing distributions under mixed and heterogeneous traffic flow. The results revealed that the proposed distribution not only captures the fundamental characteristics of headway distribution but also provides physically meaningful parameters that describe the distribution shape of observed headways. Under heterogeneous flow on highways (i.e., uninterrupted traffic flow), the proposed distribution outperforms other candidate distributions. Under urban road conditions (i.e., interrupted traffic flow), including heterogeneous and mixed traffic, the proposed distribution still achieves decent results.

交通流建模头车距分布混合交通统计建模

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